NFL MVP race wide-open after Saquon Barkley's history-making performance

After 12 weeks of football, the NFL's MVP race is still wide open.

According to FanDuel, as of Tuesday, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+150) is the current favorite. Not far behind him are Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+250), Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (+700) and Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (+700), who may have the strongest case out of the four.

Here is what each of the top four MVP contenders have accomplished to get to this point and what their chances of winning the award look like after Week 12.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Given the fact that Allen lost his top receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade to the Houston Texans before the season, there was not much expected of this Bills team in 2024. Allen had other plans.

After Week 12, Allen has 2,543 passing yards with 18 TDs and only five interceptions. Allen's 18 TDs are tied for sixth in the NFL while his QBR (73.2) ranks third. On the ground, Allen has been hard to stop with 316 rush yards and five TDs.

The most impressive area for Allen is his lack of turnovers. Coming into this season, Allen had thrown 78 interceptions in his six prior seasons in the league.

The Bills (9-2) have a huge road trip to Detroit on Dec. 15 that could have a say in the MVP race. If Allen keeps taking care of the ball and takes this team on a postseason run, his MVP case should look even stronger.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Considering the Ravens defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in opponent points per game (24.5), per TeamRankings, Jackson's case for MVP looks even stronger.

While the Ravens 8-4 record is the worst of the other three with MVP frontrunners, Jackson has been sensational. 

Jackson leads the league in passing yards (3,053) and QBR (75.9). He is tied for the most passing TDs with 27. Jackson has only thrown three interceptions all season. His dual-threat ability has been on full display as well with 599 yards rushing and three TDs.

Aside from a crucial showdown with the Eagles on Sunday, the Ravens have a second meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers. If Jackson is going to win his third MVP, the Dec. 21 matchup with Pittsburgh could be pivotal. In an 18-16 loss to the Steelers on Nov. 17, Jackson was held to his lowest completion percentage (48.5%) of the season and threw one of his three interceptions of the season.

It may be one game, but one poor performance could be the difference in a wide-open MVP race. Losses to the Cleveland Browns (3-8) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) will not help either considering both teams are last in their divisions.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Goff and the Lions (10-1) are currently tied for the best record in the NFL. Although the Lions rushing attack — spearheaded by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery — has accounted for 21 TDs, which is the second most in the NFL, Goff has had an impressive season as well.

In addition to having the best completion percentage (72.9%) of his career, Goff has 2,761 passing yards for 20 TDs and nine interceptions. If you take out the five interceptions Goff had against the Houston Texans on Nov. 10, it has been an efficient season for Goff.

Goff's accuracy has been on full display. He completed 18 of his 18 pass attempts for 292 yards and two TDs against the Seattle Seahawks on Sept. 30 and went 22-for-25 for 280 yards and two TDs vs. the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 20.

The success from Gibbs and Montgomery on the ground might keep Goff from standing out amongst the other three. Regardless, the 2024 season has been a productive one for Goff.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Coming off a history-making performance on "Sunday Night Football" that saw Barkley set an Eagles single-game record with 255 rush yards, the Philadelphia RB arguably has the strongest case for MVP out of the four.

In his first season as an Eagle, Barkley has the most rush yards (1,392) in the NFL. His rushing TDs (10) are tied for the fourth-most. Including his 255-yard rushing performance on Sunday, Barkley has accounted for 100 or more rushing yards seven times this season. He has had multiple TDs in five games, including a three TD performance (two rush, one receiving) against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.

With the second-best record (9-2) in the NFC, Barkley has the Eagles in a great spot heading into their matchup with Baltimore on Sunday.

If Barkley can stay on this pace, he has an excellent shot of becoming the first running back to win MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. 

Other than what Allen has been able to do with less around him, it is hard to make the case for anyone else to win MVP than Barkley after Week 12.