Thanksgiving game against Packers will reveal a lot about Dolphins' chances

Now that starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back in the lineup, the Miami Dolphins are starting to play like the team they were expected to be at the start of the season.

They have won three games in a row, scored at least 23 points in each of the past four games and are starting to create a buzz that they might be able to go on a second-half run to get back into the AFC playoff picture.

Their Thursday night game against the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving is going to be a pivotal one in their season. It will not only tell us a lot about their chances of going on a run for the playoffs, but also whether or not the team is making any progress in its ability to actually compete with the best teams in the league. 

When it comes to their playoff chances for this season, the Dolphins have almost no margin for error.

They are already on the outside of the AFC playoff picture looking in and two games back of the seventh spot. Realistically speaking, it is probably going to take at least 10 wins to get in the AFC field, which means the Dolphins could not afford to lose more than two games the rest of the way. They might not be able to lose more than one game. 

While the schedule does have some favorable matchups, including two games against the New York Jets and a game against the Cleveland Browns, there are also a couple of potential playoff teams still looming. That includes Thursday's game at Green Bay, a Week 15 game at Houston and a Week 16 game against San Francisco. 

That brings us to the other issue here with the Dolphins. Can they actually beat teams like that?

That has been the one constant issue for them under head coach Mike McDaniel. In his first two full seasons as the Dolphins' head coach, they are just 3-11 against teams that made the playoffs (including the two playoff games) and were only 1-6 a year ago. The truly staggering thing about that stat is they actually beat two playoff teams within the first three weeks of the 2022 season (Baltimore and Buffalo) and then went just 1-11 in the 12 games after that against playoff teams. 

So far this season, the Dolphins are 0-4 against teams currently in a playoff position or that have a winning record and 5-2 against teams with a losing record or out of the playoff picture. That is not a sustainable, winning formula to only beat the non-playoff teams and keep losing to the above-average teams.

That is why Thursday's game will tell us a lot about what this team is capable of.

The Dolphins have their quarterback healthy again. They are building some momentum and playing their way back into the playoff picture. They are getting a chance to play a legitimate playoff team in the NFC.

If they win, it gets them back to .500 for the season with some winnable games ahead and proves they can at least beat a good team. If they lose? Their already slim playoff hopes take an even bigger hit and questions remain about their ability to beat good teams.