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Why Ravens' Lamar Jackson should be MVP favorite
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Why Ravens' Lamar Jackson should be MVP favorite

Following Buffalo's upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, Bills QB Josh Allen dethroned Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson as the betting favorite for NFL MVP on ESPN Bet.

Allen (+150) remains the favorite as of Friday, but Jackson (+260) is playing at a considerably higher level than any other quarterback and deserves to be the MVP front-runner.

Here are five stats that show why Jackson should be the leading candidate for MVP.

9.0 TD/INT ratio

With 27 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, Jackson has reached a historic level of passing efficiency. His 9.0 TD/INT ratio ties Tom Brady (2010) for the ninth-best season ratio in NFL history.

Perhaps even more unbelievable, there's a compelling argument that none of Jackson's three interceptions this season are his fault (each deflected off a receiver's hands before being intercepted).

114.6 Passing EPA

One of the more reliable methods of encapsulating a QBs value is through Expected Points Added (EPA), a metric that "defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score," according to Pro Football Focus.

Jackson doesn't just lead the league in Passing EPA. He blows the competition out of the water. 

The gap between Jackson (114.6, league best) and Lions QB Jared Goff (76.1, second best) in EPA is 6.6 points larger than the gap between Goff and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (44.2, ninth best), according to Next Gen Stats.

Jackson's 0.29 EPA per dropback is the most by a qualifying passer (minimum 14 attempts per game) in a season since Aaron Rodgers (0.31) in 2020, when he won MVP honors with the Green Bay Packers. Five of the past six MVP winners led qualifying passers in EPA per dropback during their respective seasons.

117.9 passer rating

Jackson's 117.9 passer rating is the second-highest mark by any player in a season in the past 10 years, trailing just Rodgers in 2020 (121.5). It tops his previous career-high season passer rating of 113.3 in 2019, Jackson's first MVP-winning season.

In Baltimore's 41-10 rout of the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Jackson posted his fourth career perfect passer rating (158.3), tying the NFL record for most in a career. He has a above-average 100 or better passer rating in nine of his past 10 starts.

8.9 passing yards per attempt

Baltimore's late bye week (Week 14) is heavily assisting in Jackson's narrow league lead in passing yards (3,053), but he also leads the league in passing yards per attempt — an irrefutably impressive feat. Jackson's 8.9 yards per attempt are the most in his career, surpassing his 2023 mark (8.0) that helped him earn his second MVP award.

He's on pace to finish the season with 4,325 passing yards, which would annihilate his current career high of 3,678 yards.

599 rushing yards

Despite having Derrick Henry, one of the league's most dominant running backs of this century operating in his backfield, Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 599. He's on pace to finish the season with 849 yards rushing, which would be his most since 2020.

Jackson, whose team is 8-4, is incredibly consistent rushing, accruing at least 30 rushing yards in all but two games this season. His 5.8 yards per carry rank fourth among all qualified rushers (minimum 6.25 rushes per game) this season, trailing Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley (6.2), teammate Henry (6.0) and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs (6.0), according to NFL Pro.

On Sunday in Baltimore, Jackson will showcase his skills against the Eagles (9-2).

Joshua Eaton

Joshua Eaton is a sports journalist who closely follows the Denver Broncos, but is passionate about the NFL and College Football. He attends the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University, and plans to graduate in 2027 with a bachelor’s degree in Sports Journalism. Josh can be found on both Twitter/X and Instagram at @josheatonn

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