How much longer can the Chiefs get away with close wins?

The Kansas City Chiefs won again. On Friday, they beat the Las Vegas Raiders by the score of 19-17. While most are looking at Kansas City's 11-1 record as a sign they are poised to make another Super Bowl run, it's now fair to ask how much longer they can keep winning this way. 

A win is a win in the NFL, but Friday's victory was despite losing the total yards battle and achieving fewer first downs. The Raiders outgained a Chiefs offense led by a two-time MVP 434 to 329. And while Patrick Mahomes did throw for 306 yards, he needed 46 pass attempts for that production, as the team only put 19 points on the scoreboard. 

Mahomes completed only 56.5% of his passes, which is well shy of his career average of 66.7%. To be fair to Mahomes, Kansas City's offensive line did allow five sacks, and the ground game only totaled 63 yards. 

Every win can't be pretty in the NFL, especially at this point in the season, but winning despite lackluster performances has become a norm for the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. 

Nine of the Chiefs' 11 wins have come in close games. To fully paint the picture, Kansas City has won those nine games by seven points or less. And following its 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, a team they've eliminated in the playoffs on multiple occasions, it has just a 30-27 win over the lowly Carolina Panthers and this most recent one over the now 2-10 Raiders to their credit. 

The regular season may not matter as much for a franchise trying to become the first in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls, but it's very unlikely the Chiefs will even get that far again if they don't play better. 

With five games left, Mahomes is already only three interceptions away from matching his total from all of 2023. His 19 touchdown passes are eight away from his 27 from last season and 22 from the 41 he posted in 2022. 

Travis Kelce entered the week with 68 catches for 569 yards and two touchdowns, solid numbers for most tight ends but pedestrian by his legendary standards. Kelce caught 93 balls for 984 yards last season and hasn't caught under 90 in a season since 2017 and below 80 since 2015.

It's always possible the Chiefs can turn it on at any time, and it certainly wouldn't be wise to count out an Andy Reid-coached team with Mahomes as its quarterback. But with all of that said, it's fair to argue the 2024 Chiefs have been more lucky than good. 

The coming weeks will expose if the Chiefs are really good enough to make another run. With the exception of a game against the Browns, the rest of Kansas City's schedule is full of teams with winning records, highlighted by a Christmas Day showdown with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. 

There's a reason why no other NFL dynasty accomplished a three-peat. Time and an increase of parity around the league may be too much for this year's Chiefs.