The latest College Football Playoff rankings were unveiled on Tuesday night, and it helps paint a pretty good picture of what the 12-team playoff field might look like next week when it is officially announced.
The big change this week involved the Ohio State Buckeyes dropping from No. 2 down to No. 6 after its stunning loss to Michigan.
Oregon remains at No. 1, while Texas moves up to No. 2 and Penn State moves up to No. 3.
Notre Dame (No. 4) and Georgia (No. 5) round out the top-five.
Along with that, the Miami Hurricanes (No. 12) would be the first team out in this week's rankings after losing two of its past three games, including last week's game at Syracuse.
Alabama, despite having three losses, is back into the field with a No. 11 ranking.
Oregon, Texas, Boise State and SMU would have the bye weeks by being the four highest ranked conference champions, while Penn State, Ohio State, Georgia and Notre Dame would host first-round playoff games.
Here is a look at the complete top-25 rankings and what the playoff field would look like this week.
The FULL College Football Playoff top 25 rankings pic.twitter.com/GuL2GvJrka
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
There are a few key things that need to be settled this weekend in the conference championship games.
For one, the ACC (SMU vs. Clemson), Mountain West (Boise State vs. UNLV) and Big 12 (Arizona State vs. Iowa State) could very likely be win-and-in games for everybody involved.
Second, there is the matter of what all of that would mean for bubble teams like Alabama and Miami.
The fact Alabama is positioned to be in a playoff spot this week is a pretty good indicator that the committee views them as a playoff-worthy team despite the three losses. Reputation, playing in the SEC and the roster on paper are going to be factors working in the Crimson Tide's favor. The fact they are 3-1 against teams currently in the top-25 was also cited by committee member Warde Manuel during an appearance on ESPN following the rankings.
Manuel also referenced not having any additional data points on teams not playing in conference championship games, indicating there would be no movement on them next week. That means there is no chance a team like Miami or South Carolina would magically jump ahead of Alabama next week. Those specific rankings are set.
If everything goes as planned in the aforementioned conference title games and SMU, Boise State and Arizona State all win and hold the status quo, then Alabama seems like it will almost certainly be in the field despite having three losses.
But if one of them loses? If Clemson beats SMU or if UNLV beats Boise State and gets one of those conference championship bids? That might create the possibility for both Clemson and SMU to get in, or both UNLV and Boise State to get in, and potentially knocking Alabama back out.
At that point it would come down to whether or not the committee sees SMU or Boise State with two losses (with one of them being a conference championship game) as being better than a three-loss Alabama team.
It sets the stage for a fascinating and important weekend of conference championship games.
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