Three keys to Thunder-Rockets NBA Cup semifinal

The top two defenses in the league square off Saturday as the Thunder battle the Rockets in the NBA Cup semifinals. 

Historically, younger teams don't get it together so quickly on defense, but these squads have the personnel — athletic wings and bigs — to disrupt all sorts of coverages and thrive in a playoff-like setting. And going by the other elimination games of the NBA Cup so far, it's a safe bet that this matchup will be a low-scoring affair with postseason-type physicality. 

Can OKC tame the glass eaters?

The young Rockets are elite at rebounding the basketball, leading the league in defensive (35.5) and offensive rebounding (13.9), with the latter amounting to 17.2 second-chance points per game. The Thunder have improved as a rebounding team from last year but are still ranked No. 16 this season, and collecting the board cleanly remains one of their few weaknesses. 

The Rockets out-rebounded them in their previous two matchups (1-1) and need to do so again in Las Vegas to stamp their presence in the paint. However, the rebounding edge would mean little if they allow Lu Dort and Co. to wreak havoc with deflections — they're No. 1 in the league at that — a deciding factor in OKC's 126-107 win on Nov. 8.  

Late-game turnovers

The Rockets lead the league in clutch opp. turnover percentage (18.7), regularly causing havoc in the final five minutes of games with their elite defense. During their quarterfinal win over the Warriors, they forced Steve Kerr's team into multiple violations in the final 3:03 while holding them to 0-of-4 shooting. 

Even in lineups with Fred VanVleet and Alperen Sengun on the floor, the Rockets are elite defensively, which wasn't necessarily the case last season. If the game comes down to the wire, Thunder will be tested by the Rockets' grit in such situations. Houston's ability to cause turnovers is why 31.1% of its points come via fastbreaks and 15.2% off second chances. It thrives off an opponent's mistakes. 

A clear No. 1 option versus a committee 

The Rockets are one of the few teams who don't have a legitimate No. 1 option, with seven players averaging between 11.2 and 19.2 points. Although Sengun and Jalen Green can get a bucket if need be, Ime Udoka hasn't run specific go-to plays down the stretch for either of them. 

On the flip side, the Thunder have a clear-cut No. 1 option in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is fifth in the league in clutch points (4.4) and fourth in shot attempts (20.6). During crunch time, OKC will run a play for SGA to get to his spots. The same can't be said for the Rockets, who rank dead last in assist rate (only 54.5%) and take questionable shots in the clutch. It might be a wise call to post up Sengun, who had 20 points and 14 rebounds the last time he matched up with Isaiah Hartenstein.

Tip off is at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The winner will face either the Hawks or the Bucks in Tuesday's NBA Cup final.