NFL X factors: AFC wild-card playoffs

Who will step up to lead their teams to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs? Here are the players we believe have the best shot.

Baltimore Ravens | Derrick Henry | RB

Baltimore went 1-1 in last year’s playoffs, beating Houston 34-10 in the divisional round and losing 17-10 to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Quarterback Lamar Jackson finished as the leading passer and rusher in both games, which is why the team signed Henry.

Henry nearly eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark for the second time in his career with 1,921 yards this season, second only to Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards. Pittsburgh, the Ravens’ next opponent, held Henry to 65 yards in Week 11 but gave up 162 yards to him in Week 16.

Another performance like that should give the Ravens just enough to beat a Steelers team that’s had their number for the past few years.

Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | QB

Sometimes the obvious answer is the best. Allen hasn’t posted the gaudy numbers of years past, but he’s arguably having the best season of his career and has the best odds (-270) to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

While the MVP is supposed to be a regular-season award, a big game against the Broncos could seal the deal for Allen and get Buffalo the win.

Denver Broncos | Nik Bonitto | LB

Bo Nix also seems like an obvious choice, but rookie quarterbacks can be tricky in the playoffs. Last year, Houston’s C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns in his postseason debut but Broncos legend John Elway was benched in his first playoff start back in 1983.

If Denver hopes to upset Buffalo, it’ll need to lean on its seventh-ranked defense, led by Bonitto. The third-year linebacker posted a career-high 13.5 sacks this year, the third most in the NFL, en route to his first Pro Bowl nomination.