Padres avoid arbitration with star pitcher

The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75M in 2025. That’s $5.75M more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7M salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala and Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounce-back for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper — to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5 percent whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP and xERA while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. 

Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75M salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. 

That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease "haven’t been rebuffed entirely."

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169M total and this year’s current estimate of $208M (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75M salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. 

He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75M deal.