Can Frances Tiafoe Exchange Washington Wins for Melbourne Moments?

Frances Tiafoe faces Arthur Rinderknech on Monday in the first round of the Australian Open looking to kickstart his 2025 season. But just how far can the American go this fortnight?

Tiafoe’s career has for the most part been built upon one period of the season: the American hard court swing. As brutal as it sounds, it is the reality. It’s where he’s delivered his best Grand Slam results and his best performance at Masters 1000 level (a runner-up showing in Cincinnati). He has, of course, enjoyed success elsewhere – including reaching the last eight in Melbourne in 2019 – but increasingly Tiafoe has only delivered consistently on home soil.

So the question for the American now is how can he produce the tennis we know he is capable of away from home comforts? In front of a home crowd, his game flourishes. His personality is revealed through his style of play. It’s rather unorthodox, particularly technically, but when he is on song he plays at full throttle and the US spectators love it. He has rewarded that support with some excellent results.

Of course, it isn’t uncommon for players to be at their best when a home crowd are behind them. Alex de Minaur clearly loves representing his country in the Davis Cup and playing in front of Australian fans, whilst Ugo Humbert flourished last season at the Paris Masters. Yet the drop off for Tiafoe is currently just too extreme. You can sense the difference with his game having arguably become too reliant on the energy of the crowd. When that isn’t there he often struggles.

His performances against, for example, Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz at the US Open have been world-class. If you had only ever watched tennis in Flushing Meadows, you would be forgiven for thinking that Tiafoe is one of the elite players. Elsewhere, however, there is little sign of that level.

The tools are there – his forehand grip may be extreme but it stood up to an examination against one of the best in the game in Carlos Alcaraz. His pushing and hockey-like backhand may not be a big weapon, but it is very consistent and has consistently served him well on hard courts in the US. He also boasts a powerful and accurate serve, as well as excellent athleticism.

Last season, after the disappointment of defeat in the last four in New York, Tiafoe stated that he was hoping to “turn a page” to try to end the season strongly. Instead he won only a handful of matches and ended the year ranked 16th in the world. He will surely have ambitions of improving on that in 2025, but will need to deliver more consistently across the season if he is to do so.

Should he negotiate his first-round clash with Rinderknech, he will likely face another beatable opponent in Fabian Marozsan. After that though, it gets a lot tougher. His projected route to the title pits him against Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner, and Carlos Alcaraz. However, tennis can be a funny old sport, and it only takes a couple of upsets for a draw to open up. At any rate, going in as underdog may allow him to channel the maverick gamestyle which so often works him on home turf.

Should he bring that approach, it would be no suprise to see the Melbourne crowds rally behind him. Unfortunately, this may be a case of wishful thinking. We aren’t talking about a youngster, after all, this is an experienced and seasoned professional. It just so happens that currently, he is an experienced and seasoned professional who typically doesn’t deliver his best tennis until August. Will that change in 2025? Possibly, but don’t hold your breath.