Why Braves ultimately chose not to sign All-Star reliever

Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on Friday, a three-year deal with a $33M guarantee. Shortly after the Jays announced that signing, it was reported that the Orioles had agreed to give Hoffman $40M over three years but backed out after flagging a shoulder issue in his physical. The saga continues Monday, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that the Braves also walked away from a deal with Hoffman.

There are no details on Hoffman’s agreement with Atlanta. It’s unclear if this was before or after the agreement with Baltimore. It’s also not publicly known what sort of financial details were worked out between Atlanta and Hoffman. Bowman doesn’t specifically mention what issue Atlanta found in the physical, though it’s presumably the same shoulder problem that the O’s flagged.

It’s a notable development on a couple of fronts. For fans of the Jays, this will perhaps add to the level of concern that already developed out of the report about the deal with the O’s. All teams have different thresholds for what is or is not a concern during a physical, but the fact that two clubs were scared away from Hoffman will understandably be a bit nerve-wracking for fans of the club he is now a member of.

It bears repeating that the Orioles didn’t want to walk away from Hoffman completely. Per last week’s reporting, Baltimore continued negotiating with Hoffman after nixing the $40M agreement. That suggests that whatever it found in his shoulder wasn’t a dealbreaker but rather something that lowered the amount of money it was willing to commit to him. It’s unknown how much the shoulder issue knocked off its offer, but it presumably dropped below the $33M figure that Hoffman got from Toronto.

Time will tell if the shoulder becomes a problem for Hoffman during the next three years, but it’s a situation that has precedents. Carlos Correa is the most notable recent example, as he originally had a 13-year, $350M agreement with the Giants before they flagged an ankle issue in his physical. That led to a 12-year, $315M agreement with the Mets, though that was also quashed by the ankle issue. 

That led Correa back to the Twins on a six-year, $200M guarantee with four vesting options that can eventually lead to Correa earning $270M over 10 years. Since then, Correa’s results have been mixed. He got into 135 games in 2023 with tepid offense, followed by excellent numbers in 2024, but in just 86 games, headed to the injured list due to a right oblique strain and plantar fasciitis in his right foot.

There have been other examples of disagreements about health lately. The Yankees reportedly had a deal in place to acquire Jack Flaherty at last year’s deadline but walked away due to concerns about his back in the medical reports. The Dodgers seemingly had less concern, as they swooped in to get him. Flaherty went on to stay healthy, forming a key part of the club’s rotation down the stretch and through the playoffs as the Dodgers won the World Series.

This Hoffman situation also has some parallels to Toronto’s signing of Kirby Yates a few years ago. Going into 2021, the Jays gave Yates a $5.5M guarantee with performance bonuses but he required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. In the wake of that surgery, it was reported that Atlanta had walked away from giving Yates a $9M deal while the Jays also reduced their guarantee from $8.5M, both due to concerns with the physical.

The Jays reportedly believed that Yates’ upside was worth the risk on that modest investment, which didn’t work out. In this instance, it’s unclear if the concern is as high as it was with Yates, though the investment is far larger. Though as mentioned, the O’s were still willing to make some kind of investment in Hoffman as well, to an unknown degree.

For Atlanta, while the details of its engagement with Hoffman aren’t known, this can perhaps tell us a bit about what’s next for it. If it had an agreement with Hoffman, it was likely somewhere in the $35-45M range. That suggests both that it has some money to spend and a willingness to use it on upgrading the pitching staff.

Hoffman reportedly got some interest as a starting pitching earlier in the offseason. It’s unknown which role Atlanta had in mind, though it did do the reliever-to-starter conversion thing with Reynaldo Lopez last year. It signed Lopez to a three-year, $30M deal and then moved him to the rotation for the 2024 season. That has worked out very well so far, as Lopez posted a 1.99 earned run average in his 25 starts last year.

A rotation addition seems to be on the to-do list for Atlanta again this winter. It lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to other clubs via free agency and was connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter, though he later re-signed with the Rangers. On the other hand, the bullpen lost A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and others to free agency, while knee surgery is going to possibly keep Joe Jimenez on the IL for the whole 2025 season.

Atlanta has been fairly quiet this winter, mostly making cost-cutting moves. That includes jettisoning Jorge Soler’s contract, non-tendering Ramon Laureano, turning down an option on Travis d’Arnaud and restructuring the deals for Lopez and Aaron Bummer. 

It’s unclear exactly where it wants the payroll to be but RosterResource currently projects it at $201M, about $22M below last year’s $223M Opening Day figure listed at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR also has Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number at $217M, which is $24M shy of the $241M base threshold of the tax.

Atlanta has paid the tax in each of the past two years. Back in December, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the club could pay the tax again in 2025, though without firmly declaring that it would do so. Given the wiggle room it currently has, it can make a notable investment or two while still staying south of the line.

Hoffman could have been a part of the plans, either for the rotation or the bullpen, though the Braves will now have the chance to redirect that money to someone else. 

The free-agent market still features starters like Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and others, as well as relievers including Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and more. The trade market may feature names like Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo as rotation options, while Ryan Pressly and Erick Fedde are some relievers who could be available in trade talks.