NHL power rankings: Jets zoom to top, but what elite teams hover below them?

We're past the halfway point of the regular season and the Four Nations Face-Off (Feb. 12-20) is fast approaching, followed by the NHL trade deadline (March 7). 

With that in mind, it's time to release our first NHL power rankings. 

We've broken the league into eight tiers:

• Lifting 34.5 Pounds Tier
• They're Going to Be a Problem Tier
• Second-round Fodder Tier
• Just Happy to Be Here Tier
• Played Themselves Out Of The No. 1 Pick Tier
• The Slow Fade Tier
• The Enigma Tier
• This Might Actually Get Worse Tier

All stats are from the publicly available model Natural Stat Trick and are updated through Sunday's games. All records are through Sunday's games.

Lifting 34.5 Pounds Tier

Three teams should get their players' arms ready to lift that 34.5-pound Stanley Cup. 

1. Winnipeg Jets (31-13-3)

They've let us down before, but Winnipeg's leading the league in fewest high-danger chances allowed per hour (6.84) in the past month while still maintaining an elite power play that has scored the second- most goals per hour (14.02) since Dec. 20. They also have the No. 1 teamwide save percentage at 5-on-5 (.952) in the league. 

2. Vegas Golden Knights (29-14-3)

Vegas is tied for 13th in the NHL in points percentage (.571) since Dec. 20, but they are first in the league in high-danger chances created per hour at 5-on-5 (12.82) and 10th in fewest high-danger chances against per hour at 5-on-5 (9.53) in that same time frame. The power play has been dangerous at sixth in expected goals for per hour (10.33) in the past month.

3. Edmonton Oilers (29-14-3)

Edmonton is at or near the top in basically every positive possession category, but they are also fifth in the league in fewest high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (8.87) and feature the best player in the league (Connor McDavid) and another top-10 player (Leon Draisaitl). 

They're Going to Be a Problem Tier

There are four teams that look like they could make deep runs even if they have a flaw or two.

4. Washington Capitals (31-10-5)

The Capitals have the best record in the league and are tied for the second-best points percentage over the past month (.767), but they have become a little over reliant on elite goaltending from players who haven't shown a history of being able to do that consistently. In the past month, Washington is 32nd in shots per hour at 5-on-5 (21.44) and 28th (8.89) in high-danger chances per hour at 5-on-5.

5. Florida Panthers (27-17-3)

The defending Stanley Cup champs are allowing the fifth-fewest goals per hour at 5-on-5 (1.73) and seventh-fewest high-danger chances per hour at 5-on-5 (9.48) since Dec. 20. They've been slowed by an uncharacteristically league-worst 4.68 shooting percentage at 5-on-5 in the past month. 

6. Dallas Stars (29-16-1)

Last year's Western Conference runner-up is running off a league-best 85.5% penalty kill and has created the third-most high-danger chances per hour at 5-on-5 (12.52) in the past month.

7. Colorado Avalanche (28-18-1)

They made major changes to their goaltending duo by trade to stop their season from spiraling out of control. It has paid off to the tune of a 9-3-1 record in the past month, good for fifth in the league in points percentage (.731) and seventh in all situations save percentage (.912) in that time. 

Second-round Fodder tier

Something must change for any of these teams to make a serious threat at winning their conference. 

8. Los Angeles Kings (25-13-5)

Their placement in this tier would imply they don't have to play Edmonton for a fourth year in a row in the first round. While they're playing well across the board in the past month in categories such as possession at 5-on-5 and on special teams, they're overall 5-on-5 goal generation per hour sits at 23rd (2.05) in the NHL in that span.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs (29-16-2)

They won't go far if they don't get a handle on their defensive play, which has taken a dip in the past month despite a 9-6-0 record. The Leafs are 28th in the NHL in high-danger chances against per hour (12.21) since Dec. 20. 

10. Carolina Hurricanes (27-17-3)

The Canes have cooled. Despite being, once again, one of the better teams at having the puck and keeping the puck, they've seen their fatal flaw of finishing and goaltending rear it's ugly head once again. Their shooting percentage and save percentage have dipped significantly in the past month to the tune of 28th in all situations shooting percentage (8.53 percent) and 23rd in all situations save percentage (.890) since Dec. 20. 

11. Minnesota Wild (27-15-4)

Minnesota is another team that started hot and cooled considerably. Of recent concern, they're just 2-10-2 against the other seven Western Conference teams currently sitting in a playoff spot.

12. New Jersey Devils (26-17-6)

The Devils have faded some (5-6-3) in the past month, a stretch that showcased flaws in their ability to generate enough offense at 5-on-5. They were 16th in the NHL in the past month in expected goals created per hour at 5-on-5 (2.37) and 22nd in actual goals created per hour at 5-on-5 (2.06).

13. Tampa Bay Lightning (25-16-3)

The Lightning seem to have an issue giving up chances in quantity, finishing 21st in expected goals against per hour at 5-on-5 (2.52) in the past month despite being 15th in the league in fewest high-danger chances against per hour at 5-on-5 (9.85). Tampa's goaltending has been strong, resulting in the third-fewest goals against per hour on the penalty kill (3.88). 

Just Happy to Be Here Tier

These teams will be happy to be playing meaningful hockey come April.

14. Ottawa Senators (24-18-4)

Ottawa has taken huge strides defensively this season, particularly in the past month. Despite injuries in goal, the Senators have protected their netminders with the seventh-fewest expected goals allowed per hour at 5-on-5 (2.17) since Dec. 20. 

15. Montreal Canadiens (23-19-4)

They currently are sitting outside a playoff spot, but only one team collected points at a faster rate in the past month (next on this list). The Canadiens aren't defensively sound, but they are fourth in the past month in expected goals generated per hour at 5-on-5 (2.78). 

16. Columbus Blue Jackets (22-17-7)

There may be no better story in the NHL than the Jackets holding down a playoff spot in January following the offseason deaths of Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew. They're a competent, middle-of-the road 5-on-5 team that led the league in the past month in goals generated per hour on the power play (14.56), resulting in the best record in the NHL since Dec. 20. 

17. Calgary Flames (22-16-7)

The Flames have been playing the "will they/won't they" game on rebuilding for a few years now. The other franchise most impacted by the deaths of the Gaudreau brothers is also clinging to a playoff spot in January, and they're doing it thanks to very solid 5-on-5 play and the outstanding goaltending of Calder candidate Dustin Wolf. 

Played Themselves Out of the No. 1 One Pick Tier

Realistically, these teams probably all at some point in the past few months thought they could pick No. 1 in the 2025 NHL Draft and probably won't now.

18. New York Rangers (22-20-4)

They spent a seven-week stretch as the worst team in hockey, but the Rangers are 7-5-3 in the past month and have generally shown improvement in almost every 5-on-5 category during that time. Is it too little, too late? 

19. Detroit Red Wings (21-21-4)

The sugar rush of a new head coach brought them a seven-game winning streak. They rose from the league basement thanks to a power play that scored the fifth-most goals per (12.7) hour in the past month. Do they have the necessary push to avoid a ninth consecutive playoff miss? 

20. St. Louis Blues (22-21-4)

They're 13-9-3 since firing Drew Bannister and replacing him with Jim Montgomery. They're first in the NHL in the past month in goals scored per hour at 5-on-5 (3.19), but they're last in goals allowed per hour on the penalty kill (14.58) in that same span.

21. Vancouver Canucks (20-15-10)

Vancouver has seemingly found a way to walk the tight rope and avoid the season spiraling out of control despite the very public issues between centers Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller. They're a pretty middle-of-the-road possession team getting the worst all situations team goaltending in the NHL over the past month (.856). 

22. Philadelphia Flyers (21-20-6)

They're second in the NHL in the past month in fewest expected goals against per hour (1.93) and 29th in all situations save percentage (.875) in that same span. The goaltending is simply letting down the rest of the team. 

The Slow Fade Tier

It seems like the fight is fading from these teams. 

23. Boston Bruins (22-19-6)

The coaching change burst has worn off, and now the Bruins are tied for 25th in points percentage (.462) in the past month. Injury to defenseman Hampus Lindholm aside, their two-way game has collapsed in the past month (29th in expected goals against per hour at 5-on-5, 2.92).

24. Utah HC (19-19-7)

Utah, by the numbers, probably deserves a better fate -- 10th in the NHL in expected goals against her hour (2.73) in the past month and solid on both special teams units. They're all situations save percentage since Dec. 20 is 24th in the league (.888). 

25. New York Islanders (18-20-7)

Special teams -- particularly the power play -- are pretty much still dreadful. There's just not enough finishing talent it seems for a team that is last in power-play shooting percentage (5.13 percent) since Dec. 20. 

26. Buffalo Sabres (17-23-5)

They've improved in some areas from dreadful to competent, but it doesn't bode well for this team that they led the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (11.6 percent) for the past month and still went just 6-6-1.

27. Seattle Kraken (20-24-3)

It has been a banner start for the Jaden Schwartz-Matty Beniers-Kaapo Kakko line, outscoring the opposition 10-5 at 5-on-5 since the trade. Yet in the past month, Seattle is last in the NHL at generating high-danger chances per hour at 5-on-5 (7.81). 

The Enigma Tier

Like the famously "enigmatic" Russian stars of the NHL, this tier features one team that absolutely no one can figure out.

28. Nashville Predators (16-22-7)

They're across the board better in the past month and actually tied for the 10th-best points percentage in that span (.583). But they were so comically incompetent to start the season that it has only brought them marginal improvement in the league standings.

This Might Actually Get Worse Tier

These teams are trending clearly downward and could be in the running for the top pick in the draft in a season where no one is sure if Boston College star James Hagens or any of OHL standout trio Porter Martone, Matthew Schaefer or Michael Misa could win the honor of top pick.  

29. Pittsburgh Penguins (19-21-8)

Remember when they were making that push for the playoffs? Well, going 4-7-3 in 31 days while cratering in chances, 5-on-5 shooting percentage, goaltending and penalty killing simultaneously has Pittsburgh fans dreaming of their first blue-chip prospect in decades.

30. Anaheim Ducks (18-22-6)

They're still a nightmare at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill. The save percentage from goaltender John Gibson might be the difference between Anaheim picking No. 1 and No. 3 overall come June -- assuming Gibson isn't traded before then.

31. Chicago Blackhawks (15-28-3)

It's an absolute fiasco of a 2024-25 in Chicago, one marked by one of the worst defensive stretches of the season for a team that's been outscored 41-25 at 5-on-5 in their disastrous past 13 games (3-9-1). In that stretch, they also got embarrassed in one of the most unwatchable Winter Classic matchups in NHL history. 

32. San Jose Sharks (14-28-6)

The Sharks beat out Chicago by a hair thanks to their monthlong allergy to scoring. San Jose is last in expected goals generated per hour at 5-on-5 (1.88) and second to last in high-danger chances generated per hour at 5-on-5 (8.02) in the past month as they've gone 3-9-1.