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NFL underdog report: Conference championships
Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford. Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

NFL underdog report: Conference championships

By Bruce Ewing  |  Last updated Jan 20, 2025 4:01 PM ET

The Chiefs and Eagles are each favored to win their conference championship games, setting the stage for a rematch of Super Bowl LVII. Of course, the Bills and Commanders have other plans. Here’s how each scores an upset victory. (odds via ESPN)

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) 

Sunday’s game will mark the fifth time division rivals have played for the conference championship since the NFL’s realignment in 2002. The teams split their regular season series with Washington using a five-touchdown performance from quarterback Jayden Daniels to beat Philadelphia 36-33 in their most recent matchup.

Of course, the Commanders committed five turnovers (two interceptions, three fumbles) in that game, something the Eagles failed to take advantage of with quarterback Jalen Hurts missing most of the game with a concussion. Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 10 and had only five all year. That must change if the Commanders hope to get past the Eagles this weekend.

The Commanders had four interceptions on Lions quarterback Jared Goff on Saturday, including two from rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil and a 40-yard pick-six from safety Quan Martin. They also forced a fumble that led to the team’s first touchdown. 

Without turnovers, Washington was unlikely to overcome 105 yards and two scores from running back Jahmyr Gibbs and a 137-yard performance by Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn the 45-31 road victory.

This weekend, the team will need to overcome Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. Easier said than done considering he’s averaged 162 yard per game in the playoffs. Commanders coach Dan Quinn knows the easiest way to control Barkley is to take the ball out of Hurts hands by forcing turnovers.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) 

The Bills lost to Kansas City 27-24 in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs but beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. They had a tougher time holding off the Ravens on Sunday night but managed to escape with a 27-25 home victory thanks to a brutal drop by Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews at the end of the game.

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen ran for a pair of touchdowns on a snow-covered field but threw for a season-low 127 yards. But like Washington, the Bills won the turnover battle by forcing Baltimore into three turnovers.

Per ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg, the Bills have gone 21 straight games including playoffs without losing the turnover battle, tying the longest such streak in NFL history (the Rams did it from 1952 to '53). Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw just 11 interceptions in the regular season, but two came against the Bills in Week 11. 

He attempted a season-low 25 passes against the Texans on Saturday, but with a rushing attack that accounted for just 50 yards against the Texans, he’ll need to air it out against the Bills. If the Bills can come up with an early interception or tempt the Chiefs to run the ball, Buffalo will end Kansas City’s quest for a third-straight Super Bowl championship.

Bruce Ewing
Twitter/X

Bruce Ewing is 183 pounds of twisted steel and Happy Meals. His work has appeared on Yardbarker, 5th Down Fantasy, Inside the Iggles and MSN. Give a Philly fan a break and follow him on Twitter/X at @fantasybruce.

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