Australian Open women's semifinal predictions: Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys

The first Slam of this season winds down as we enter the business end of the second week of the 2025 Australian Open. No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek squares off against No. 19 seed Madison Keys in what should be an incredible battle between two of the best baseliners in the world. Both are seeking their first appearance in an Australian Open final.

As always, we at LWOT provide our roundtable preview and prediction for this bout. A separate article features Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa. Predicting this match are Yesh Ginsburg, Ateet Shrivastava and Shane Black. But who will advance to the final?

Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Predictions

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys

Yesh
Madison Keys is one of the few players who can match Iga Swiatek from the baseline. The American both has the movement and the firepower necessary to beat Swiatek at her own game. And Keys is honestly more adaptable than the Pole under pressure. It will take her absolute best, but I’m sensing an upset here.
Prediction: Keys in 3

Ateet
The Australian Open has been the most consistent Slam for Madison Keys and she is once again in the semifinals. This will be Swiatek’s first big test as both players will look to make their first Australian Open final. Swiatek leads the head-to-head, but it’s level on hard courts. Keys has the power and serve to win this, but she will have to be extra consistent against Swiatek’s retrieving skills. The second serve will play a key role in this matchup; whoever defends it better should have the upper hand. I am going with the upset.
Prediction: Keys in 3

Shane
Iga Swiatek has looked dominant as she hunts for her first Australian Open title. The Pole has dropped just seven games over her last four matches and has been firing on all cylinders from the baseline. American Madison Keys has what it takes to puncture Swiatek from the baseline. If she matches consistency with her power, expect Keys to win her fair share of baseline exchanges. However, Swiatek is playing some of the best hardcourt tennis of her career and is poised to make it to her first final in Melbourne.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3