How NBA's middle class should navigate dreaded 'Hamster Wheel of Mediocrity'

In today’s NBA, teams are incentivized to be really good or really bad. A team should either be going all-in to contend for a title or tanking for a shot at selecting a franchise player in the draft. If a team is somewhere in the middle, it better have a clear direction because floundering about play-in territory is the NBA’s version of purgatory. 

Let’s take a look at the NBA’s middle class — the teams that are at an inflection point and must pick a direction heading into the trade deadline Feb. 6 at 3 p.m. ET.

For the purposes of this discussion, these eight teams are in the contending class: Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks.

The following five teams aren’t contenders, but they’re young and on the upswing, so any sort of playoff experience will be a positive thing for the team’s long-term projection: Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.

And the following seven teams are in the tanking tier: Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Charlotte Hornets, New Orleans Pelicans, Toronto Raptors, Portland Trail Blazers and Brooklyn Nets.

That leaves us the following 10 teams. 

(All records and statistics are through Monday's games. We offer a big trade for every team except the Los Angeles Clippers.)

Los Angeles Lakers (26-18, fifth in West)

Give Anthony Davis what he wants!

Davis and LeBron James are putting on the full-court press on the front office to make a couple of moves to give them a chance to compete for a title. AD wants a center who allows him to play at the four. Unfortunately, GM Rob Pelinka only cares about keeping his job, and owner Jeanie Buss is too busy promoting her new book to care, so it’s difficult to envision the Lakers pushing the chips to the center of the table. Lakers fans can always dream, though.

Trade: Deal Rui Hachimura, Jalen Hood-Schifino, a 2029 first-round pick, a 2031 first-round pick and removal of top-four protection on 2027 first-round pick to the Jazz for Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton. 

Los Angeles Clippers (26-20, sixth in West)

Let the good times roll!

The Clips don’t own their own first-round pick until 2030, so there’s no incentive to tank and no future assets left to leverage for the rest of the decade. They’re a fun team with a great coach and a good homecourt advantage (17-8 at home).

Minnesota Timberwolves (25-21, seventh in West)

Send Julius Randle packing.

The Karl-Anthony Towns trade is already a disaster for the T’Wolves, but that doesn’t mean they should sit on their hands if the right opportunity to trade Randle arises. Anthony Edwards and their defense will make them hard to beat in most seven-game series, so if they can get a guard who can replicate Randle’s scoring juice but provide better spacing, the T'Wolves should do it.

Trade: Send Randle and a 2028 first-round pick swap to New Orleans for Dejounte Murray.

Phoenix Suns (24-21, eighth in West)

First mission: Keep trying to get Jimmy Butler but double-check that Houston won't overpay for Kevin Durant.

It’s somewhat crazy but also somewhat admirable how “all-in” the Suns, who are somewhat mediocre. They’re going to pull out all the stops to get Butler, but before they make the final call on a deal, they should check to see whether the Rockets, a fringe contender with a bevy of assets, will give them the farm for Durant.

Trade: Send Durant to the Rockets for Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., two first-round picks and a return of Phoenix’s 2027 first-round pick.

Dallas Mavericks (25-22, ninth in West)

They must get a center.

Injuries have plagued the reigning Western Conference champions to the point where they could find themselves in the play-in tournament if they don’t start stacking wins the minute Luka Doncic comes back from injury (which should be before the All-Star break Feb. 14-16). With Dereck Lively II and Maxi Kleber out for months with injuries, the Mavericks desperately need help in their frontcourt. 

If they can get Nikola Vucevic of the Chicago Bulls for a first-round pick, it might be worth the risk. He is a stretch-shooting big man who averages 20.1 points and 10.3 rebounds on 54.9-39.8-82 shooting splits.

Trade: Deal Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Dante Exum, Jaden Hardy and a 2025 first-round pick (top-five protected) to the Bulls for Vucevic.

Chicago Bulls (20-27, 10^th in East)

We’ll talk about the Bulls a little early here because they’re an obvious trade partner for a number of these teams with tradable assets. The Bulls have been on the "Hamster Wheel of Mediocrity" for longer than any of these other teams and should have made deals two seasons ago, but it's better late than never. If they can get a first-round pick for Vucevic or LaVine, they should jump all over the opportunity.

Trade: Their mission should be to trade Nikola Vucevic and/or Zach LaVine while they still have positive trade value.

Sacramento Kings (24-22, 10^th in West)

Keep it rolling.

This is the rare 180 turn. When HC Mike Brown got fired, the rudderless Kings (then 13-18) seemed ready to start a yard sale, but they’re 11-4 since Doug Christie got the HC job and should ride this heater and make a run for the playoffs. 

DeMar DeRozan looks rejuvenated lately (23.3 PPG under Christie) and their usual cast of offensive stars (De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk) has the offensive firepower to hang with most opponents. Why not lean into that offense even more by improving their below-average three-point shooting and make a move for Brooklyn's Cameron Johnson (41.9 percent from three)?

Trade: Send Kevin Huerter, Devin Carter and a 2027 first-round pick to the Nets for Johnson.

Golden State Warriors (22-23, 11^th in West)

How dare they not go all-in for Steph!?!

Steph Curry deserves better than this. It’s pretty ridiculous that the front office isn’t moving heaven and earth to give Curry, 36, another shot to compete during the twilight of his prime. Instead, Mike Dunleavy Jr. & Co. are worried about mortgaging their future for the present. But here’s the thing: There’s a perfect player available who could fit both of those desires (New Orleans' Zion Williamson).

Trade: Send Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis, 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 first-round pick for Williamson.

Miami Heat (23-22, sixth in East)

Get Jimmy out of there before he does permanent damage to the franchise.

What Butler is doing is immature and unbecoming of a franchise player. That said, players with his stature and stubbornness can drag even the strongest of franchises into the mud with them. The Heat don’t tank, so they should trade for a distressed asset who can be rehabilitated.

Philadelphia 76ers (17-27, 11^th in East)

That brings us to the extremely underwhelming 76ers. The Sixers need a healthy and motivated Joel Embiid. They’ll never be able to guarantee the former, but they should settle for the latter and re-acquire the one superstar teammate he seemed to have the most respect for: Butler

Trade: Send Paul George, Adem Bona and a protected 2026 first-round pick to Miami for Butler and Pelle Larsson.