Analysts share final predictions for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson MVP debate

One of the hottest topics of the second half of the 2024 NFL regular season involved takes regarding whether Buffalo Bills star quarterback Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens should claim Most Valuable Player Award honors. 

ESPN's Courtney Cronin spoke with 13 analysts about their final MVP votes before Thursday's NFL Honors. Seven of those 13 individuals selected Allen as the league's MVP for the campaign.

"This is an award driven by narratives, and the one in Buffalo is that Allen did more with less after the Bills parted ways with his No. 1 and No. 2 receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, respectively, in the offseason," Cronin explained. "Buffalo also had only one Pro Bowl selection outside of Allen (left tackle Dion Dawkins) and no All-Pros. The Bills were the first team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams when they knocked off the Lions and Chiefs in games where Allen racked up 747 total yards, six touchdowns and one interception while not being sacked."

Per Pro Football Reference, Allen finished the regular season leading the NFL with a 77.3 adjusted QBR for the campaign. While his Bills went 13-4, Jackson's Ravens ended Week 18 at 12-5. According to Cronin, Allen's "85.3 QBR and 6.5 yards per dropback when pressured were the highest ever in a season since ESPN began tracking pressures in 2009." 

Nevertheless, six different analysts gave Jackson first-place MVP votes over Allen. 

"Jackson's case is strongest when looking at how he performed against the NFL's best teams," Cronin wrote. "Jackson's 7-3 record against playoff teams trumps Allen's 2-3. Against top-10 defenses, Jackson has the edge in several categories: win-loss record (4-2), (expected points added)/play (0.27) and total touchdowns (15). ...Jackson is the first player in NFL history with at least 40 passing touchdowns and four or fewer interceptions in a season."  

Jackson passed for two touchdowns and added another score on the ground in a dominant 35-10 win over Buffalo in Week 4. According to the StatMuse website, he and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals finished the regular season with a league-high 45 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. Jackson was second behind only Burrow (5,119) with a combined 5,087 passing and rushing yards. Additionally, Jackson led all qualified players with a 119.6 passer rating.

If nothing else, Cronin's piece indicates there will be no runaway MVP Award winner this time around and shows that fans of the runner-up will likely feel their preferred candidate was "robbed."