Make no mistake about it: Veteran starting pitcher Max Scherzer said he signed a one-year, $15.5M deal with the Toronto Blue Jays because he wants to win. However, after an up-and-down offseason, are the Blue Jays really in a position to do just that?
Speaking to reporters on Friday, Scherzer was very clear about why he chose Toronto.
Max Scherzer says he was attracted to the #BlueJays being in an “all-in position”
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) February 7, 2025
“I’m not just playing to play. I’m playing to win. I feel like Toronto offered that.”
That "all-in position" is an interesting one in and of itself when it comes to the Blue Jays. After all, this is a team that once again chased some of the biggest free agents/newcomers on the market this winter (reportedly including Roki Sasaki, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, among others) and once again came up short in those quests.
However, while the Blue Jays missed out on some of the bigger names, they did improve the lineup by inking Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5M contract and boosted the pitching with the addition of not only Scherzer but also reliever Jeff Hoffman. Other moves such as acquiring outfielder Myles Straw and infielder Andrés Giménez could pay off in time as well, but none of those moves carry the weight of the blockbuster deal that the Blue Jays have wanted to land for so long.
Make no mistake that Toronto has tried to go "all in." However, the reality of it is that the Blue Jays could well be a middle-of-the-pack team in the American League East if preseason projections hold true.
PECOTA rankings have the Blue Jays finishing 85-77, a marked improvement over last year's 74-88 stumble for sure. However, those same projections have Toronto missing the postseason.
The same holds true at FanGraphs, a site that has given the Blue Jays (with a projected 82-80 record) a 37.6% chance to make the postseason. Of the five teams in the AL East, that percentage is at the bottom of the division. It's also behind six other AL teams, leaving the Jays clearly on the outside of the postseason bracket and looking in.
So yes, as Scherzer said, the Blue Jays would be winning ... but just not winning enough to actually make an impact in the American League.
Certainly those are just projections, but as it stands now, this could well be another "what could have been" season for Toronto. The timing of that couldn't be worse for the Blue Jays with lineup cornerstones Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slated to hit free agency at the end of the campaign.
Scherzer will be a key part of a key season in Toronto. The question becomes just how much winning the Blue Jays will actually do this season and if it's enough to make this a season to remember or forget north of the border.
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