Brandon Ingram's extension is a risky gamble for Raptors

Ingram signed a three-year deal with Toronto for $120M, with the third year being a player option. That's less than the maximum contract Ingram could have received in free agency, but it's still a huge salary — plus a deal that gives Ingram all the upside. Either he outperforms the deal and becomes a free agent in two seasons, or he disappoints, and the Raptors are stuck with him for an expensive third year.

It also locks the Raptors into a young core that's not cheap by any means. Since July, Toronto has signed 23-year-old Scottie Barnes to a five-year extension that could be worth up to $270M, 25-year-old Immanuel Quickley to a five-year, $175M deal. Now the 27-year-old Ingram joins them, along with 25-year-old R.J. Barrett, signed for over $57M for 2025-27.

They'll be paying that quartet $144M in the 2026-27 season, meaning that the Raptors, currently 17-37, will be pushing against the luxury tax as early as next season. They've bet big on some players who really haven't done much this season.

Quickley's injuries have limited him to 14 games this season. Ingram has played in only 18, and has missed 118 games (and counting) in the last four seasons — almost 30 per year. Barnes missed 14 games this season and 20 in 2023-24. Barrett missed 13 games this season and 24 last season.

While the Raptors have been turning over their roster the past two seasons, shipping out longtime players Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, they've had a bottom-six defense in the NBA. The team makes the second-fewest three-pointers in the league. Ingram could help that, but he's only a 36.3 percent shooter for his career. Quickley shoots 37.4 percent, while Barrett's under 35 percent and Barnes barely cracks 30 percent.

It all adds up to a strange decision to give up a first-round pick and a huge contract to add Ingram, particularly because this team doesn't seem one player away from contention. Perhaps the Raptors are counting on landing a stud in this year's draft (they have the fifth-best lottery odds), but overall, it looks like team president Masai Ujiri got sick of losing and decided to go all-in.

For a squad that looks like a marginal playoff team even if they're healthy. With this Ingram move, the Raptors may have gotten themselves closer to another sell-off of expensive players — and no closer to contention.