Not long ago, things were going swimmingly for Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans. An electric 94-91 win in overtime over North Carolina the day before Thanksgiving set off a 13-game winning streak that carried the Spartans through January.
But February has been bitter. Michigan State lost at home to Indiana Tuesday night, marking its third loss in the last four games. At 19-5, 10-3 in the Big Ten, Michigan State is a game back of rival Michigan for the conference lead. Is the recent play just a bump in the road, or a troubling trend as March Madness approaches?
Let's start with the easiest number of all: the score. Michigan State has lost three games this month by an average of four points per game. Zoom out to the entire season and its five losses are by an average of 5.6 points. The Spartans are always in the game and a handful of possessions from winning all five of those contests. That's good news.
The magic number is 70 for Michigan State. In all five losses, MSU has failed to eclipse 70 points and it has won only one game in which it scored fewer than 70. During the 13-game winning streak, the Spartans averaged 82.7 points per game, but have averaged 69.5 in the last four games.
As one could imagine, the shooting numbers are down and turnovers are up over the last four games compared to the previous 13, but there's nothing particularly alarming. It appears this is a bump in the road during a long season, in which Michigan State hadn't experienced much adversity yet. Similar to conference foe UCLA, this losing streak doesn't have to spell doom and gloom moving forward.
However, in a tough Big Ten, Michigan State is about to face its toughest stretch yet. The Spartans play six of their final seven games against teams in the top half of the Big Ten standings, including four against teams in the top four. The good news? The conference title is there for the taking. Michigan State plays two games against Michigan and one against Purdue — the two teams ahead of it in the standings.
Izzo has been doing this long enough that there's no reason for panic yet in East Lansing. Michigan State isn't getting blown out, and while the three-point shot has become an area of concern (22-of-78 in the last four), shooting comes and goes during a long season.
The key for all teams is to be playing their best ball when March comes. While the last two weeks haven't been ideal, it's a good bet Izzo will have his team primed and ready for March Madness when the time comes.
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