Maybe the Cardinals didn't completely win the Nolan Arenado trade

Maybe, just maybe, the St. Louis Cardinals didn't exactly win the Nolan Arenado trade with the Colorado Rockies. Perhaps, knowing what we know now, the deal was a loss for both teams.

Now four years removed from the blockbuster deal that sent Arenado from the Mile High City to the Gateway Arch, St. Louis finds itself desperately trying to unload the 10-time Gold Glove winner, a situation the franchise has been in all offseason. 

That potential trade has hamstrung the Cardinals all winter, and now, there is a very real prospect that St. Louis may have Arenado in its Opening Day lineup in one of the most awkward starts to spring since Arenado walked into the Rockies clubhouse in 2020 after saying he felt "disrespect" from members of the organization because of the franchise's direction.

Around one year after those comments, Arenado was on his way to St. Louis in a deal that netted the Rockies five players, including starting pitcher Austin Gomber, the only part of the return still with the franchise. 

Moving Arenado cost the Rockies not only more than $50M of the All-Star's salary, but also plenty within its own fan base. A face of the franchise, Arenado's loss alienated many of Colorado's fans and is still a sore subject to discuss around Coors Field.

Yes, the trade caused plenty of hurt in Denver. As time has gone on, however, the pain associated with it has moved across Interstate 70 to St. Louis as well.

Simply put, the trade that was supposed to be a key to St. Louis getting back to the World Series for the first time since 2013 has been an utter disappointment for the Cardinals. With Arenado, the Cardinals have reached the postseason twice (2021 and 2022) and never advanced past the wild-card round, getting swept both times. 

In those two seasons, Arenado performed well, including a tie with eventual NL Most Valuable Player (and teammate) Paul Goldschmidt at the top of the league's bWAR list at 7.7 in 2022. Arenado would finish third in the MVP vote, tying for his highest placement in his now-12-year career.

However, the last two seasons, as the Cardinals have missed the postseason, Arenado has seen his numbers decline as well, posting 4.9 bWAR combined in the two campaigns.

Those two seasons, as well as Arenado's no-trade clause that he has already reportedly used once this offseason, have placed the Cardinals in an unenviable position of getting stuck in neutral. While St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is asking for "patience" as the franchise still tries to unload Arenado, the options for sending him elsewhere dwindled again with the Boston Red Sox signing third baseman Alex Bregman to a deal earlier in the week.

And history could well repeat itself as it now may be the Cardinals who reportedly will have to send millions along with Arenado just to get a deal done.

Knowing all of this, in hindsight, was the trade as bad for the Rockies as first noted? Certainly it was by no means a win for Colorado, and the franchise has floundered since Arenado's departure, including back-to-back 100-loss seasons. However, it could be argued that even Arenado's presence in these past four years could not have morphed Colorado into a postseason contender in an NL West that is stacked with talent.

Yes, the Rockies lost the Arenado trade. However, it now seems that the Cardinals didn't fare much better as they look to move on from Arenado and a frustrating four years.