Six favorites (and a dark horse) to win men's Final Four

With Selection Sunday set March 16, Madness looms. Excellent men's teams abound, but which ones will make a run to the Final Four and win a national title?

Let’s make the case for teams that have the best shot at cutting down the nets at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Plus, we make a case for a dark horse.

 (All odds via DraftKings. Records are through Monday's play.)

Auburn Tigers (27-2) | +340 to win, -145 to reach Final Four

On paper, Auburn’s biggest strength is its offense, ranked first in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. However, if the Tigers win the national championship, it will be because of their veteran leadership. Older, more experienced teams have demonstrated greater success in March because of their ability to understand the pressure that comes with tournament games.

The Tigers suffered an upset to Yale in the first round of last season's tournament, but Coach of the Year contender Bruce Pearl has his team, led by seniors Johni Broome (team's leading scorer at 18.4 PPG), Miles Kelly and Chad Baker-Mazara, playing at an elite level against the hardest schedule in the country. 

Duke Blue Devils (27-3) | +350 to win, -150 to reach Final Four 

Duke is the only team ranked in KenPom’s top five in offensive- and defensive-adjusted efficiency. Wooden Award candidate Cooper Flagg, a freshman standout averaging 19.6 points, has led the Blue Devils with his remarkable playmaking abilities. Keep an eye also on freshman sharpshooter Kon Knueppel (13.6 PPG) and freshman rim protector Khaman Maluach (6.5 RPG). 

Junior guard Tyrese Proctor and graduate transfer Sion James in the backcourt lend stability and ball security. However, Duke has not played the toughest of schedules in a down year for the ACC, so how will it fare against more tested teams? 

Florida Gators (25-4) | +950 to win, +165 to reach Final Four 

If veteran backcourts translate to success in March, head coach Todd Golden should feel good about his team's prospects. The three-headed monster of Walter Clayton Jr. (16.9 PPG), Will Richard (13.6 PPG) and Alijah Martin (14.7 PPG) has propelled the Gators to the program’s best season since they were No. 1 overall seed in the 2014 NCAA Tournament and lost in the Final Four to eventual champion UConn. 

Florida boasts the fifth-best scoring average (83.8) and second-best scoring defense (67.2) in the historically strong SEC, and has battled through injury while Martin and forward Alex Condon missed several games. With the emergence of sophomore Tommy Haugh (9.1 PPG) and return of center Micah Handlogten (6.2 RPG), the Gators will enter the tournament as a top-two seed with major depth and an offensive attack that can rival that of any team.

Houston Cougars (26-4) | +750 to win, +150 to reach Final Four 

As usual, head coach Kelvin Sampson has a team that prioritizes defense. Houston has the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation and eighth-best offensive rating, per KenPom. Plus, the Cougars are the second-best team in the nation, per Haslametrics.

However, the key to Houston’s success is its deliberate pace (fourth slowest in the nation in KenPom's adjusted tempo rating). When the games get tight in the late rounds, the Cougars are built to grind it out.

Alabama Crimson Tide (23-6) | +1200 to win, +225 to reach Final Four 

Per KenPom, Alabama is ranked first in adjusted pace, which has contributed to its top-five offensive attack. After a Final Four run last season, Mark Sears (19.1 PPG) and Grant Nelson (11.8 PPG) are again leading a strong, veteran team. Can the Tide hang with the elite teams even when the shots are not falling? 

Tennessee Volunteers (24-5) | +1200 to win , +225 to reach Final Four 

A veteran and dynamic Tennessee squad, led by Zakai Zeigler (13.7 PPG) and transfer Chaz Lanier (17.8 PPG), looks to help coach Rick Barnes reach his first Final Four since he led Texas to the final weekend in 2003. The Volunteers are riding high after a buzzer-beater win against Alabama in Knoxville on Saturday. They aim to carry that momentum, and the top defensive efficiency rating in the nation (per KenPom), into the SEC tournament in Nashville next week and throughout March. 

DARK HORSE: St. John's Red Storm (26-4) | +2500 to win, +450 to reach Final Four 

With a win against Seton Hall, the Johnnies clinched their first outright Big East regular-season title since 1985. For the Red Storm, it starts and ends on defense, as they have the nation’s second-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating (per KenPom). 

St. John's offense is not quite up to par, ranking just 71st, but high-impact transfer Kadary Richmond (12.8 PPG) and All-American candidate RJ Luis Jr. (17.8 PPG) lead a nasty and tough team that can keep it close with anybody. 

In March, you want people on your team who’ve been there before. Coach Rick Pitino is the only coach in the history of college basketball to lead three schools to the Final Four, and the only coach to win a championship at two different universities (Kentucky in 1996 and Louisville in 2013.)