Analyst warns teams about giving Sam Darnold a massive contract

Unless Sam Darnold comes to an agreement to remain the Minnesota Vikings' starting quarterback through at least the 2025 season this weekend, he likely will become the highest-paid quarterback of his free-agency class at some point after the new league year opens this coming Wednesday. 

For a piece published Friday, ESPN NFL analyst Seth Walder explained why quarterback-needy teams should think twice before they give Darnold millions upon millions of dollars in guaranteed money. 

"Darnold ranked only 14th in QBR (60.4) in the regular season," Walder noted, "...and the Vikings ranked 15th in offensive (expected points added) per play. He managed that barely-above-average level of efficiency with an offensive playcaller in (head coach) Kevin O'Connell who's widely considered one of the best in the league. Darnold also had the benefit of arguably the league's best wide receiver (in Justin Jefferson), a high-quality No. 2 in Jordan Addison and solid pass protection. He even played 54% of his snaps with the Vikings in the lead, the highest among all qualifying quarterbacks."

At first glance, the stats seem to indicate Darnold played like a franchise quarterback for much of the 2024 season. Per Pro Football Reference, he ended Week 18 ranked fifth in the league with 35 passing touchdowns, fifth with 4,319 yards through the air and sixth among qualified signal-callers with a 102.5 passer rating. However, he was 15th with a 47.7% passing success rate. 

It also can't be forgotten that Darnold "saw ghosts" under the bright lights of Minnesota's biggest games of the campaign. When the Vikings had a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed for the playoffs in Week 18, he passed for 166 yards with no touchdowns in a 31-9 blowout loss at the Detroit Lions. He then took nine sacks, lost a fumble that was returned for a score and threw an interception in the 27-9 wild-card defeat at the Los Angeles Rams.

"...Given that his numbers were more middling than great despite the favorable circumstances around him," Walder added, "I think Darnold is a below-average starter. That's not the type of player to whom I want to give a big multiyear guarantee."

Teams seemingly don't share Walder's concerns, as ESPN's Ben Solak said on Thursday that "people will be surprised by how much Darnold makes on the open market." Stories have linked Darnold with the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers. 

One of those clubs may have to offer Darnold up to $85M in guaranteed money attached to a three-year contract worth up to $125M to win his signature.