Penguins' late-season surge is too little, too late for playoff hopes

The Pittsburgh Penguins are in the early stages of a rebuild and have spent most of the 2024-25 season selling off veteran assets to collect draft picks and prospects. They hope to complete this rebuild relatively quickly, but the playoffs never seemed like a realistic possibility at any point this season.

Despite all of this, they have gone on a little bit of a run since the NHL trade deadline and won four games in a row after Saturday's 7-3 win over the New Jersey Devils.

That winning streak has included three wins against playoff teams (Vegas, Minnesota and New Jersey) and a St. Louis team that has been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month. 

Immediately after Saturday's game, they were able to close to within just four points of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, and at least create the illusion they might still be in that playoff race.

The problem is that it is just that — an illusion. It is a mirage. It is fantasy to think they still have a chance at the playoffs, and it has little to do with the state of the roster or the way they are playing right now.

It mostly comes down to a numbers game, and how there is probably just not enough time to make up that sort of gap with just one month to play in the regular season. 

It is not just the point deficit that matters. It is also the combination of the number of teams between them and a playoff spot, as well as the number of games everybody still has to play. After Saturday's game, the Penguins have already played 69 games this season, which is more than every other team in contention for a playoff spot in the East.

Ottawa and Columbus, the two teams currently occupying wild-card spots, still have three games in hand on them, while the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins and New York Islanders are all in the same situation. 

Look at it another way: The current point pace for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference is 88 points. That means the Penguins would need to finish the season with 89 points to eclipse that, and that is assuming none of the other teams ahead of the pick up their pace. A playoff spot usually requires at least 90-95 points in normal years. For them to get to just 89 points they would need 23 points over their remaining 13 games. That would be an 11-1-1 record. That is just not likely to happen. 

The Penguins rebuild is actually off to a promising start. They still have very good NHL players (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson) and a rapidly improving farm system with some bonafide NHL prospects (Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Owen Pickering) that should be able to make an impact in the NHL as soon as next season. They also have 30 draft picks over the next three years, which is more than any other team in the NHL over that stretch with a real opportunity to add more this offseason. They have a chance to turn this around quickly. It is just not going to be this season, no matter how many games they win right now.