Correctly picking the national champion is the most critical aspect of winning your NCAA Tournament bracket pool. You probably won't win your pool without nailing the eventual champ, so let's narrow the pool of contenders by crossing off five high seeds that won't win the national title.
No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (27-6)
What will do them in: Outside shooting
27 CONSECUTIVE NCAA TOURNAMENTS⚪️ pic.twitter.com/WxXfJUVjad
— Michigan State Men's Basketball (@MSU_Basketball) March 16, 2025
HC Tom Izzo did an exceptional job leading Michigan State to a No. 2 seed after entering the season unranked, but that's precisely what makes the Spartans a cross-off team. According to Ken Pomeroy, 39 teams in the 64-team era entered the tournament as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed after being unranked in the preseason AP poll, and none made the Final Four.
Plus, Michigan State ranks 328th in three-point shooting percentage (30.8 percent), which significantly caps its upside.
No. 2 seed St. John's Red Storm (30-4) | West Region
What will do them in: Shooting
Unfortunately for St. John's, they're right alongside Michigan State as a preseason unranked team to grab a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. History says these teams overachieved relative to their talent in the regular season and they can't make deep runs in March Madness.
In another parallel to MSU, St. John's is a terrible shooting team. HC Rick Pitino's group ranks 244th in effective field-goal percentage (49.7 percent), 295th in free-throw percentage (68.9 percent) and 338th in three-point shooting percentage (30.4 percent).
No. 2 seed Alabama (25-8) | East Region
What will do them in: Pace and defense
Alabama is much different in that it has no issues putting the ball in the basket. The Crimson Tide have one of the more high-powered offenses in college basketball (91.1 PPG), but it's the other end of the floor that will spell their demise.
Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country and isn't great defensively (81.4 PPG), so games can get away from this group in a hurry if the shots aren't falling. The Tide gave up at least 90 points nine times this season.
If that doesn't sway you, leading rebounder (7.6 RPG) and second-leading scorer Grant Nelson (11.8 PPG) is battling a knee injury and might not be 100 percent during the NCAA Tournament.
No. 3 seed Iowa State (24-9) | South Region
What will do them in: Injuries
T.J. Otzelberger told reporters tonight that Iowa State's Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain) will not be available moving forward.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 16, 2025
Has not played since 3/12.
Averages 13.4 PPG.
Iowa State suffered a brutal blow to its title chances when Keshon Gilbert, the team's starting point guard and leading assist man (4.1 APG), went down with a groin injury. The Cyclones have lost three of their past four games with Gilbert out of the lineup.
This would be a sneaky title contender if fully healthy, but point guard is the most irreplaceable position on the court. It's hard to picture Iowa State making a deep run without its floor general.
No. 3 seed Kentucky (22-11) | Midwest Region
What will do them in: Defense and injuries
Kentucky also isn't entering the NCAA Tournament at 100 percent. Kerr Kriisa and Jaxson Robinson are out with season-ending injuries, and Lamont Butler (11.5 PPG) went down with a shoulder injury in the first round of the SEC Tournament.
Butler is expected to play through his injury when Kentucky meets Troy in the Round of 64, but there's no telling how effective he'll be. Even without the injuries, the Wildcats rank only 57th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and 289th in opponent two-point shooting percentage (43.7 percent).
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