Do stats show Jaguars' Liam Coen may not be able to save Trevor Lawrence?

The worrisome struggles of quarterback Trevor Lawrence were the biggest story hovering over the Jacksonville Jaguars this past fall. He was sidelined in December with multiple injuries, and the club parted ways with head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke this offseason.

Jacksonville ultimately hired former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen to serve as Pederson's replacement and help Lawrence get back on the right track. However, ESPN's Michael DiRocco suggested in a piece published Friday that the Jaguars trading wide receiver Christian Kirk and releasing tight end Evan Engram this offseason will make Coen's job much harder. 

"According to ESPN Research," DiRocco explained, "when targeting Kirk and Engram since 2022, Lawrence completed 70.2% of his passes, had 21 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, an off-target percentage of 14.3%, and got rid of the ball in 2.42 seconds. When targeting any other player on the field: 61.9% completions, 36 touchdown passes to 19 interceptions, an off-target percentage of 17.2%, and got rid of the ball in 2.67 seconds. Lawrence got the ball out quicker and averaged more than a yard more per attempt (7.8 to 6.7) when throwing to Kirk and Engram, a clear sign that he was comfortable when throwing to those two."

Lawrence signed a five-year contract extension worth up to $275M with $142M fully guaranteed last offseason but noticeably regressed during the 2024 campaign before he went down with a shoulder injury and a concussion. According to Pro Football Reference, he finished this past regular season ranked 28th in the NFL among qualified players with an 85.2 passer rating, 35th with a 60.6% completion percentage and 24th with an average of 204.5 passing yards per game. In fewer than 10 completed contests, he tossed 11 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. 

Of course, Lawrence isn't entirely without help following the departures of Kirk and Engram. He's familiar with second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who tallied 87 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. Additionally, The Athletic's Jeff Howe is among those who think the Jaguars could further bolster their offensive line via the first round of the upcoming draft. 

Still, it can't be forgotten that Lawrence curiously became the subject of a trade rumor out of nowhere in February. Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio speculated at that time that "someone within the" Jaguars may have been "hoping to entice [a different team] to make ownership an offer for Lawrence that wouldn’t be refused." 

As much as Coen and Co. sound committed to Lawrence this spring, history shows such situations often change quickly in the NFL.