Vintage David Goffin Stuns Carlos Alcaraz in Miami

David Goffin, one of the most successful Belgian tennis players, started the season losing five matches in a row and couldn’t win a match until Acapulco. Now, he has defeated world No. 3, Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz’s defense is neutralized (at least as much as it can be) against players who can stalk the baseline, take the ball early, and challenge him in pure ball striking and taking his time away.

Goffin stuns Alcaraz in Miami

Goffin did just that as he took the ball on the rise and rushed the Spaniard. Very aggressive, precise serving and hitting successfully with small margins. He let Alcaraz win just 64% of first-serve points. The Belgian has now won four of his last five matches against the top 3 players, and this was his second win in a row against Alcaraz. It was also his 20th top-10 win in his career. Goffin had a great run in Shanghai last year, reaching the quarterfinals and defeating Alexander Zverev en route. With this performance, Goffin once again demonstrated his talent and ability to defeat the best players.

Goffin plays some masterfully beautiful tennis at times. He was at his peak in the Big Three’s era and, therefore, doesn’t have the results that his talent arguably deserves (though he has reached four Grand Slam quarterfinals). He is a very talented player and would have achieved much more had he peaked in another era. With a 19-15 win-loss record against long-time top 5 players (Stan Wawrinka, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Dominic Thiem, Marin Cilic), he has consistently measured up well against some of the best in the world. Even his defeats were competitive, making him seem like a top 5 talent himself. He has also beaten all three of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer.

But he also has some very bad matchups. His record against Andy Murray, Alex de Minaur, Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, and Andrey Rublev is a miserable 2-31 record, and that really limited his ceiling during his prime.

The road ahead for Goffin

Despite showing glimpses of his magic here and there, injuries and inconsistency have hampered Goffin’s progress over the last few years. His last ATP title came in 2022, and since then, he has only managed to reach one tour-level semifinal. The Belgian will turn 35 later this year, but he still looks fit, and his playing style, characterized by precise shot-making and clever play, will allow him to remain competitive without solely relying on physical prowess. He knows how to prevent counteroffensive players from grinding him down by taking shots early and serving precisely, and he has nice volleys and touch too. His biggest challenge will be remaining consistent and motivated against lower-ranked players.

Goffin has won 5 of his last 10 matches against players ranked inside the top 50 which is decent, but has lost 7 of his last 10 matches in all competitions against players ranked outside the top 50. This inconsistency won’t help him as he keeps getting older and won’t help his rankings, either. The level he showed against Alcaraz and Shelton this season and Zverev in Shanghai should come against more players. Playing against the biggest names on the biggest courts definitely motivates a veteran player but he has to be more consistent against others to get more opportunities to play the biggest names more often.

Though he is in a better place than he was at this stage last year, thanks to some good runs in the second half of 2024. Goffin was ranked outside the top 100 this time last year, and now he is one win away from entering the top 50. He has very few points to defend until August and can use this opportunity to build his rankings and enter the top 30, something he hasn’t done since 2021. If the 34-year-old keeps playing at his current level, he will have many more top wins before hanging up his racquet.