AL East predictions: A four-way battle for first place?

Baseball is in the air once again. Let's predict what could be in store for the American League East in 2025.

Baltimore Orioles | Record prediction: 89-73 (first in division)

2B/SS Jackson Holliday finds a groove in year two: From No. 1 overall pick in 2022 to struggling under the weight of immense expectations as a big leaguer, Holliday's Orioles career has been a roller coaster, to say the least. 

Now, the arrow seems to be pointing up for the 21-year-old, who sported a .333 batting average and an .865 OPS in 48 spring training at-bats this year. The sample size may be small, but the potential for stardom remains large. 

Boston Red Sox | Record prediction: 88-74 (second)

2B Kristian Campbell will be a finalist for AL Rookie of the Year: Young infielders are dominating the AL East conversation thus far, and in Kristian Campbell, the Red Sox have one of their own.

Campbell, Boston's second-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, was told that he'd break camp with the Red Sox when they begin the 2025 season in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. He'll slot in as the everyday second baseman with a chance to earn a full season of at-bats. That development should greatly enhance Campbell's odds of taking home the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2025, provided he plays well. 

New York Yankees | Record prediction: 86-76 (third)

Injuries may be too much to overcome this season: Two things are true about the Yankees: They're always banged up and they always find a way. 

On that first point, New York is already down ace pitcher Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and fellow starter Luis Gil (right lat strain), as well as designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (elbows). 

And yet? The Yankees typically find a way to survive, if not even thrive. Case in point: They haven't suffered a losing season since 1992. They've also made the playoffs every year under manager Aaron Boone, including a World Series appearance last season.

But have injuries finally caught up to the Yankees? They just might have, considering New York's farm system isn't deep enough to bring in mid-season reinforcements as its accustomed to doing. And that could mean settling for a wild-card spot in 2025, at best.

Tampa Bay Rays | Record prediction: 85-77 (fourth)

The AL's best pitching staff east of Seattle: Few teams are more proficient at developing pitching than the Tampa Bay Rays. It's a major reason why they tend to outperform expectations. 

That shouldn't change in 2025 as the Rays get set to welcome back their dominant left-hander Shane McClanahan at some point this season after a bout of nerve irritation in his left tricep. Behind McClanahan is a bevy of talented arms, including right-handers Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen and Zack Littell. Essentially, Tampa Bay will have a quality starter to send to the rubber on a nightly basis, health permitting.

The Seattle Mariners might be the class of American League pitching, but the Rays are right there with them, which will keep the latter competitive all season. 

Toronto Blue Jays | Record prediction: 77-85 (fifth)

SS Bo Bichette and RHP Max Scherzer are traded by July 31: There's a pretty noticeable decline in talent between the Blue Jays and their division rivals. That will make the playoffs a fairly unrealistic ambition for Toronto in 2025. 

The good news for the Jays, however, is that they have talent to trade. While trading first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be off the table (Toronto is reportedly optimistic about an extension), star shortstop Bo Bichette and right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer are both playing on one-year deals in 2025, making them prime trade candidates for a club that is overwhelmingly likely to sell this July. Expect both of them to sport new uniforms on Aug. 1.