The 2025 men's NCAA Tournament Final Four is Saturday at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Before Auburn-Florida (6:09 ET) and Duke-Houston tip off (8:49 ET, CBS), here are five predictions for the national semifinals.
We get a buzzer-beater
Maryland forward Derik Queen's buzzer-beater that sent Maryland to the Sweet 16 was the only one of the tournament so far. A lot must happen for a game to end on a final-second made basket, but we're wishing it into existence.
Both games are close
Building on our first prediction, we like the chances of a buzzer-beater because of the quality of the two Final Four games. For only the second time in tournament history and first since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four.
South No. 1 Auburn (32-5) and West No. 1 Florida (34-4) are familiar with each other as SEC members. Florida, a 2.5-point favorite per DraftKings, won the teams' only regular-season meeting 91-80 on Feb. 8. The Tigers had an uncharacteristically poor performance defending the three in that one, allowing the Gators to shoot 13-of-33 (39.4 percent). This season, Auburn is tied with Florida with the 11th-best three-point field-goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to make 29.6 percent of their long-distance attempts.
Outstanding seniors lead both teams. Florida point guard Walter Clayton Jr. and Auburn fifth-year senior Johni Broome, both Wooden Award finalists, had shining moments to lead their teams to San Antonio.
In the Elite Eight, Clayton Jr. drilled three threes in the final five minutes and 24 seconds against No. 3 Texas Tech (28-9) as Florida erased a 10-point deficit in an 84-79 win, while Broome returned from a scary injury to hit a dagger three to put Auburn up 12 in its 70-64 win over No. 2 Michigan State (30-7).
If that matchup sounds good, Duke-Houston is even better. Since Dec. 1, the Blue Devils (35-3), a 5.5-point favorite per DraftKings, and Cougars (34-4) are the country's hottest teams, combining for a 60-2 record.
Houston has won 17 consecutive games. Meanwhile, Duke's winning streak stands at 15. Something's gotta give in the clash of the titans. Who will budge first?
Duke-Houston: First team to 50 points wins
For all the talk centered on Duke's offense and sensational freshman forward (and Wooden Award finalist) Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils showed they might be even more impressive on defense after stymying Alabama's high-flying offense in an 85-65 Elite Eight win. The Tide led the country in scoring this season, averaging 90.7 points.
Duke's defense is great, but Houston's is better. The Cougars allow the fewest points per game (58.3) and put on a clinic in the first half against Tennessee in the Elite Eight, allowing 15 points in a 69-50 win. During the NCAA Tournament, Houston has held its opponents 20.8 points below their season scoring average.
That could spell the end of Duke's magnificent offensive run in the NCAA Tournament. Through four games, the Blue Devils have shot 56.2 percent (127-of-226), while the Cougars have limited opponents to 37.6 percent (77-of-205).
Duke's defense should cause Houston just as many problems. Whichever team reaches the half-century mark first will be in an excellent position to advance to the national championship game.
Florida forward Walter Clayton scores the most points
Clayton wouldn't be denied against Texas Tech, and he'll be just as laser-focused Saturday. In seven games this postseason (including the SEC Tournament), Clayton is averaging 21.6 points and shooting 46.7 percent, including 47.4 percent on threes. He's also been excellent getting to the free-throw line and making his shots when he's there. Entering the Final Four, Clayton has made 88.9 percent of his shots from the foul line.
Florida, Houston advance to national championship game
The Gators are clicking at the right time. Florida has won 10 consecutive games since March 1, averaging 90.6 points.
The program will advance to its first national title game since it won back-to-back in 2006-07 and will face Houston, which will have just enough three-point success — it ranks fourth in the country in three-point field-goal percentage (39.7 percent) — to reach the national finals for the first time since 1984.
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