Orioles might be glad former NL Cy Young winner declined their offer

It's not surprising to see Burnes take more years and total dollars in free agency, while also pitching closer to his native Bakersfield, California.

But in the end, the Orioles may just get the last laugh. That's because Burnes is already showing signs of regression early in 2025, with a 5.79 ERA over his first two starts. 

A deeper dig illustrates Burnes' average fastball velocity reaching 94.9 miles per hour, which would be the lowest of his career thus far. Not to mention, hitters are squaring up the veteran's pitches thanks to the latter's 48.1 percent hard-hit rate, meaning nearly half of all batters in MLB are barreling up Burnes. 

In other words? The stats don't point to a particularly dominant 2025 campaign from the four-time All-Star righty, which would surely be disappointing given the massive contract he signed with the Diamondbacks. 

That doesn't mean the Orioles wouldn't have wanted Burnes back in Baltimore, of course. They did still make a competitive offer, with an average annual value of $45 million over the reported four years. Moreover, Baltimore still lacks a true ace, which feels needed in an AL East division with some stacked lineups. 

Ultimately, time will tell whether the Orioles made the right decision to hold firm on their offer to Burnes or whether the Diamondbacks did well to secure their ace of the present. 

For now, though, the early results seem to validate Baltimore's decision.