Shane Lowry watches his shot from the eighteenth tee during the third round of The Players Championship golf tournament. Jeff Swinger-Imagn Images

History tells us one of these seven players will win the 2025 Masters

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Apr 8, 2025 9:38 AM ET

Augusta National Golf Club presents a true test of golf that demands exceptional tee-to-green play. If you want to win the Masters, you must drive the ball straight to keep it out of the pine straw, hit precise iron shots to small shelves where the flags are located and have a great touch around these tricky, undulated greens.

Strong tee-to-green play is paramount to success at Augusta, and recent winners have proven that point. According to Kyle Porter of Normal Sport, 10 of the last 12 Masters winners gained at least 1.7 strokes from tee to green in the three months leading up to the tournament. The only players who didn't fit that criterion were 2018 Patrick Reed, who chipped and put his way to a green jacket, and 2021 Hideki Matsuyama, notorious for breaking a slump with a win.

Leading up to the 2025 Masters, only seven players have gained at least 1.7 strokes from tee to green over the last three months:

Collin Morikawa (+2.60)
Rory McIlroy (+2.20)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.13)
Joaquin Niemann (+1.88)
Shane Lowry (+1.85)
Laurie Canter (+1.78)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.75)

We gonna talk about how the best ball-striker and scorer in the world this year is not Rory or Scottie but is 2-3x the odds both of those guys are for the Masters despite being a two-time major champion? pic.twitter.com/mZZoePMslZ
— Kyle Porter (@KylePorterNS) April 2, 2025

Most of these names aren't surprising to see. Morikawa, Scheffler and McIlroy have been the three best performers on the PGA Tour this season, while Lowry and Fleetwood have been piling up top-20 finishes all year. The other two names on the list — Niemann and Canter — have some asterisks next to them.

Niemann has won two of LIV Golf's five tournaments this season, but his strokes gained figures are boosted by playing against golfers such as Anthony Kim, Lee Westwood and Chieh-Po Lee, who can't compete with the best in the world. The same can be said for Canter, who has a win and three top-five finishes on the DP World Tour this year but missed the cut at the Players Championship — his only PGA Tour start in 2025.

If you kick out Canter, that leaves us with six top contenders for the Masters this year. Will one of them be donning the green jacket on Sunday afternoon?

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

More must-reads: