NL Central fool's gold: Don't expect these players to keep up current pace

Chicago Cubs | Catcher Carson Kelly

Kelly is off to a remarkable offensive start, leading the Cubs with a .417 batting average. A standout moment in his hot start came against the Athletics, where he delivered a cycle, going 4-for-4 at the plate and putting himself at the center of baseball discussions. 

However, the highest batting average he's recorded in a season is .245 back in 2019. Also, with his inconsistent time in the lineup, splitting playing time with Miguel Amaya, could impact his ability to sustain these numbers.

Cincinnati Reds | SP Nick Lodolo

Lodolo has emerged as one of the best starting pitchers early into the 2025 season. Through his first three starts, he holds a team-leading 0.96 ERA, as well as a 0.70 WHIP and a .179 batting average against.

Over 47 starts in his first three seasons, however, he posted a 4.52 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. 

His three starts have come against the Giants twice and the Brewers. The Giants, ranking 20th in team batting average at .220, and the Brewers, slightly ahead at .236 (15th in the majors), have yet to truly challenge Lodolo. 

As the season progresses and he faces higher-caliber offenses, the real test will come.

Milwaukee Brewers | SP Tyler Alexander

Through four appearances in 2025, Alexander has posted a 2.84 ERA, a significant improvement compared to his career numbers as he hasn't had a season with an ERA under 4.50 since 2021.

However, a concerning trend has emerged despite the strong start. While a small sample size of just four appearances, Alexander has struggled with control, averaging five walks per nine innings and holding a strikeout-to-walk ratio of just 1.71. These walk issues could prove challenging as the season progresses.

Pittsburgh Pirates | SP Andrew Heaney

Joining Pittsburgh as the third option in the starting rotation, Heaney has made an early impact, holding the best ERA among Pirates starters at 3.00.

Now in his 12th season in the majors, he is coming off back-to-back years of pitching at least 100 innings. However, those campaigns saw him post ERAs over four, with marks of 4.15 and 4.28 respectively.

While Heaney has started strong this season, history suggests potential regression as the season progresses. The last time he pitched over 100 innings and recorded an ERA under 4.00 was a decade ago, back in 2015.

St. Louis Cardinals | 2B Nolan Gorman

Gorman currently holds the second-highest batting average on the Cardinals at .417 and leads the team in on-base percentage at .500. However, this hot streak may not last. In his previous three years in the majors, he has hit just .222 across 315 games prior to 2025.

St. Louis’ schedule so far has featured opponents with largely middling pitching staffs, as seen in their ERA rankings: Twins (3.85, 16th), Angels (4.87, 26th), Red Sox (3.75, 14th), Pirates (4.40, 21st) and Phillies (3.52, 7th).

As the season progresses and the Cardinals face tougher pitching rotations, Gorman's numbers could regress closer to his career averages.