How did they do? Grading 2025 NFL mock draft of Mel Kiper Jr., three other 'experts'

Nailing every pick in the first round of the NFL Draft is impossible. The event is often filled with surprises, and the 2025 draft was no different. Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders plummeted to the fifth round, where the Cleveland Browns took him with pick No. 144. 

Sanders' slide reminded fans how unpredictable the event can be. The mock drafts from many "experts" reflected that. Here's a look at how four of the top analysts fared in their first-round predictions:

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN | Link to final mock draft 

Number of picks correct: 10

• Titans, QB Cam Ward
• Giants, EDGE Abdul Carter 
• Patriots, OT Will Campbell 
• Raiders, RB Ashton Jeanty
• Jets, OT Armand Membou
• Steelers, DT Derrick Harmon 
• Vikings, Guard Donovan Jackson 
• Ravens, Safety Malaki Starks
• Bills, CB Maxwell Hairston
• Chiefs, OT Josh Simmons (didn't include trade down to pick No. 32)

Kiper — who has served as a draft analyst for ESPN since 1984 — has been criticized for the accuracy of his mock drafts throughout his career. In 2023, he correctly predicted only three first-round picks.

This, however, was one of his more accurate mocks. He didn't predict the Kansas City Chiefs would trade down from No. 31 to No. 32, but they still took Simmons, so we counted it.

But when Kiper missed, he missed big. In his final mock, he had the New Orleans Saints taking Sanders with pick No. 9. He was way off on that choice. | Grade: B-

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Media | Link to final mock draft 

Number of correct picks: six

• Titans, Ward
• Giants, Carter
• Patriots, Campbell 
• Jets, Membou
• Giants, QB Jaxson Dart (trade with Seattle, not Houston)
• Eagles, Jihaad Campbell (didn't include trade up to pick No. 31)

Jeremiah nailed three of the first four picks, but he had the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Jeanty with pick No. 5, which derailed his mock. 

Jacksonville traded four picks to the Cleveland Browns to move up to No. 2 and take Hunter. The Las Vegas Raiders, meanwhile, selected Jeanty with pick No. 6. 

Jeremiah believed teams would be aggressive, which is one reason he forecasted the Giants trading back into Round 1 to select Dart. But that's also one reason his mock had a lower hit rate. | Grade: C

Todd McShay, The Ringer | Link to final mock draft 

Number of correct picks: 10

• Titans, Ward
• Giants, Carter
• Patriots, Campbell 
• Colts, TE Tyler Warren
• Falcons, EDGE James Pearce Jr. (didn't include trade with Rams)
• Seahawks, Guard Grey Zabel 
• Steelers, Harmon 
• Ravens, Starks
• Giants, Dart (trade with Detroit, not Houston)
• Chiefs, Simmons (didn't include trade down to pick No. 32)

McShay was one of the few draftniks who understood the league wasn't high on Sanders. Of the four mocks we selected, his was the only one that didn't have Sanders going in the first round. 

Still, he was far from perfect. In his mock, the Arizona Cardinals took Campbell with pick No. 16. The former Crimson Tide star fell to the Philadelphia Eagles at pick No. 31.

Another puzzling choice in McShay's mock was the Buffalo Bills selecting East Carolina cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. with pick No. 30. Keep in mind he suffered a season-ending left ACL tear in 2024. The Dallas Cowboys took the CB with pick No. 76 in Round 3. | Grade: B- 

Dane Brugler, The Athletic | Link to final mock draft

Number of correct picks: six

• Titans, Ward
• Giants, Carter
• Patriots, Campbell 
• Jets, Membou
• Seahawks, Zabel
• Chiefs, Simmons (didn't include trade down to pick No. 32)

Brugler believed teams should emphasize needs rather than going with the best player available. 

With pick No. 20, he had the Denver Broncos taking North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton to improve their 16th-ranked rushing attack (112.2 YPG). They took Texas' Jahdae Barron, who won the 2024 Jim Thorpe Award as the best defensive back in college football.

He also seems more willing to bet on boom-or-bust prospects, like Texas A&M edge-rusher Shemar Stewart. The 6-foot-5, 267-pounder ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine but had just 4.5 sacks in three seasons with the Aggies. 

The San Francisco 49ers took Stewart with No. 11 in his final mock, but he went No. 17 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals in the real draft. | Grade: C