Why Islanders should make this bold move after winning NHL Draft lottery

When the season began, Hagens, 18, was a soft favorite to go No. 1 overall. He had a nice season (37 points in 37 games) for a Boston College team that lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

Elite Prospects, the preeminent NHL prospect website and producer of the best NHL Draft guide, tracks where every player is ranked among major league and non-league affiliated big boards. It has Schaefer ranked first on 13 of the 17 boards tracked. 

Misa, 18, the eighth player granted exceptional status in OHL history, is ranked second or better on 12 of the 17 boards tracked by EP. He exploded in the regular season with 134 points (62 goals, 72 assists) in 65 games for the Saginaw Spirit.

Meanwhile, Hagens is ranked second or better on only five boards. Like Misa, he's ranked first on only two boards. 

Schaefer, 17, has drawn comparisons to Vancouver defenseman Quinn Hughes, but he is not Quinn Hughes — not yet at least. It's not a guarantee that he reaches that lofty status. More importantly, Schaefer is not considered a can't-miss generational talent. 

Arguably, there is no generational talent such as Sidney Crosby or McDavid available. Nor is there a Connor Bedard (Blackhawks) nor a Macklin Celebrini (Sharks) available. They all were special prospects, typically considered a cut above the top picks available in any normal year. If a player like that exists this year, either scouts haven't found him or his game hasn't developed to the point of being able to identify him. 

That's why it's totally defensible for the Islanders to draft Hagens. Their scouts ultimately must determine how much of a difference there is on their board, and if they conclude that the gap between either Schaefer or Misa and Hagens is too large, then that's that. 

But, if the grades are close, the Islanders shouldn't sweat it. Hagens is hometown kid with the goods to deliver an exciting career and reinvigorate a fan base deeply frustrated by these past few seasons of wheel-spinning. 

Going off-board usually doesn't have the potential to be the right long-term move. But in this draft, the Islanders should take the chance.