Celtics are winning the efficiency battle but are still losing games

The Celtics had a 16-point lead with 8:40 to go in their 91-90 Game 2 loss, then shot 1-for-14 the rest of the way. Only three of those shots came from within 10 feet of the basket, while the team went 0-for-7 from three-point range. Mazzulla might believe that these were all good looks, but while protecting a giant lead, the Celtics should have prioritized scoring points, any points.

Boston underperformed its expected effective field goal percentage in the first two games, missing open shots that during the season it made.

But those expected field-goal percentages are based on large sample sizes from entire regular seasons. The playoffs are different, when teams play the same opponent multiple times and fatigue is a bigger factor. 

Al Horford is shooting 1-for-10 from deep in the series, despite being a 36.3% three-point shooter during the season. But he's 38 and wasn't playing heavy minutes in multiple games during the regular season.

It feels like Mazzulla and the Celtics are trusting statistics instead of reacting to game situations. Late in Game 2, Mazzulla put the Knicks into the bonus by intentionally fouling Mitchell Robinson, in order to get him off the floor — for 41 seconds. It may have caused the Knicks to briefly sit Robinson, but it also removed the Celtics' ability to use a foul to give the rest of the way.

What's surprising is that the Celtics have had this happen before. In 2023, they dropped their first two playoff games at home to the Miami Heat, eventually losing in seven games. The Celtics shot 30.3% from behind the arc in the series, yet attempted 46% of their shots from deep, averaging 38 three-point shots per game. 

In this series, they're shooting 25% from deep and attempting 50 per game.

The Celtics and their coach might believe the percentages will even out, but that's not necessarily the case in a short series. It didn't happen in 2023, and the Celtics don't have much margin for error remaining in 2025.