Insider addresses if NFL could embrace draft lottery similar to NBA, NHL

As noted by Stephen Douglas of Sports Illustrated and others, numerous sports media personalities suggested after the Dallas Mavericks shockingly won the 2025 NBA Draft lottery that the NFL should embrace a similar method for determining when teams make picks during future drafts. 

For a mailbag published on Wednesday, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated shared why he doesn't "think" the NFL will hold a lottery for a draft before the ongoing decade comes to an end. 

"There hasn’t been much of an appetite for it," Breer said about how the NFL views a potential draft lottery. "Part of the concern is it could lead to tanking, in that teams that are mediocre and out of the playoff picture could lay down at the end of the season to increase their lottery odds. The other argument that the league would make is that tanking hasn’t been that big of an issue for them."

Recent history shows Breer is right about NFL teams not blatantly tanking at the end of seasons with draft picks in mind. Back in January 2023, the regime running the Houston Texans at that time was heavily criticized for attempting a two-point conversion that earned the club a Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts. That result cost Houston the right to select quarterback Bryce Young with the first pick of the 2023 draft. Houston ultimately landed C.J. Stroud with choice No. 2, and he went on to earn Offensive Rookie of the Year Award honors. 

This past January, the New England Patriots "lost" the first pick of the 2025 draft by notching a meaningless Week 18 win over the Buffalo Bills. While New England wouldn't have taken Miami's Cam Ward with selection No. 1 due to having Drake Maye on the roster, the Patriots could've sold the Ward pick to a quarterback-needy team for a haul of assets and possibly have ended up with either Penn State pass-rusher Abdul Carter or Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter. 

New England instead grabbed LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell at pick No. 4. 

"Teams looking at those sorts of things, and getting more intentional on how they handle the end of the season, could change the equation, for sure," Breer added about whether the NFL could change its mind regarding a potential draft lottery. 

For what it's worth, the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and the NFL Players Association expires after the 2030 season. That reality, coupled with Breer's update, could lead one to believe the NFL won't have any kind of draft lottery before 2031 at the earliest.