NASCAR All-Star Race preview: Favorite, underdog, top storylines

On Sunday night, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series will tackle the iconic 0.62-mile North Wilkesboro Speedway for the All-Star Race.

Here is everything you need to know as NASCAR's best battle for the $1 million prize:

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+500, per DraftKings)

Following his dominant performance at Kansas, it should come as no surprise that Larson is the favorite this weekend. His driving talent will be on full display as he balances practice and qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 with this weekend's All-Star festivities.

With Larson preparing to run the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 double for the second consecutive season on Memorial Day Weekend, 2024 Xfinity Series champion Justin Allgaier will once again serve as his reserve driver at North Wilkesboro. Larson's schedule will not allow him to practice or qualify the car. 

According to Bob Pockrass of Fox Sports, Hendrick Motorsports confirmed Thursday that it would skip the heat races for the No. 5 Chevrolet on Saturday, meaning Larson will start Sunday night's All-Star Race from the rear. As a past winner at North Wilkesboro in 2023, don't expect him to stay there long.

Underdog: Ross Chastain (+2000, per DraftKings)

Of the drivers who are locked into the All-Star Race, Chastain presents some value going into the weekend. While he has not qualified well this season, he has six top-10 finishes, two of which came at the season's two short tracks when he finished sixth at Martinsville and seventh at Bristol.

The speed has been missing in the entire Trackhouse Racing organization, so Chastain's finishes at the season's two prior short tracks suggest he could be a factor on Sunday and should not be counted out.

Will the winner dominate once again?

Since NASCAR moved the All-Star Race to North Wilkesboro in 2023 as the historic track made its triumphant return, the race winner has completely dominated each race.

Larson led 145 of the 200 laps in 2023 while Joey Logano was in charge for 199 of the 200 laps last season, leaving little doubt up front. Both races lacked competitive battles for the lead, but that may not be the case this weekend.

Promoter's caution among changes to All-Star format

Even if a driver dominates on Sunday, it may not be a straightforward trip to Victory Lane with the new promoter's caution. Basically, NASCAR has until Lap 220 of the extended 250-lap distance to throw the optional caution to bunch the field back up. If there is a natural caution after Lap 200 and the promoter's caution has not been used by that time, it will not be thrown at all.

In addition to the promoter's caution and the 50-lap increase, there will be a Manufacturer Showdown that awards the best combined overall finish among the three manufacturers. That does not even include the expanded Pit Crew Challenge on Friday that now features the Open drivers that are not currently locked into the All-Star Race, making for a stacked weekend of events overall.

Will recent All-Star Race trend continue?

Three of the last five All-Star Race winners and 13 overall have gone on to win the Cup Series championship at the end of the season. While that could be a coincidence to some, the recent trends suggest otherwise.

Logano went on to win the championship last season after winning the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro. In addition, each of the last nine All-Star races have been won by Cup Series champions, showing the cream usually rises to the top when the $1 million prize is on the line.