Who will be the next American-born MVP in the NBA?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP win marks the seventh straight season that the NBA's top player came from outside the United States. While it's a testament to the international growth of the game that winners have come from Canada, Serbia, Cameroon and Greece, it also means American-born players are lagging behind the league's elite. 

Here are five players who might be next to bring the Michael Jordan Trophy stateside.

1. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves

Edwards is finishing his fifth NBA season and playing in his second consecutive Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves had a huge amount of offseason turnover, yet Edwards kept the team afloat by averaging 27.6 points, 4.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds, while leading the NBA in three-pointers made.

He won't be 24 until August, but Edwards is still improving. He's stepped up his defense, made 68% more three-pointers last season than he did in 2023-24, remaking his game, and improved throughout the season in passing out of double teams. He looks to be on an MVP trajectory, if he can cut down all his technicals and fines.

2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Cunningham finished seventh in this year's MVP race after leading the Detroit Pistons to a shocking 30-game improvement and the No. 6 seed. Like Edwards, he's a former top overall pick that's still 23 years old, though Cunningham missed almost all of his sophomore season with an injury. Since then, he's been a force, averaging 26.1 points and 9.1 assists.

He needs to improve his shooting to be truly dangerous, but Cunningham's future MVP chances might depend on how much his team can improve. Should Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey deliver on the promise they've shown so far, the Pistons could be a regular contender in the East and their 6-foot-6 point guard could be collecting MVPs.

3. Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

It may be a copout to choose the three most recent domestic No. 1 picks as the three most likely domestic MVPs, but Banchero has shown a lot on his three NBA seasons. 2024-25 was a season full of major injuries for the Orlando Magic, but after missing 35 games with a torn oblique muscle, Banchero bounced back to average 29.8 points per game in March and 29.4 points in Orlando's first-round loss.

The 22-year-old Banchero has established himself as a big-time scorer, even in the postseason. Banchero has shown he can be the focal point of an offense, handling the ball impressively for a player who's 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds. The key to Banchero approaching MVP levels is improving his passing and being able to hold up defensively as a small-ball center, which would be huge for Orlando's limited offense.

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

It's hard to know what to expect in Tatum's future after his Achilles tear in Game 4 of the Celtics' second-round series. He's likely to miss the entire 2025-26 season. and might struggle to return to his first-team All-NBA form afterward. Still, Tatum only turned 27 in March and he's about the be named to his fourth-straight All-NBA first team.

The issues with Tatum are threefold: He has the injury. He's a very well-rounded player who is good at a lot of things, but not excellent at one specific thing. Also his Celtics have a tendency to suffer playoff upsets. However, if you're picking from American players to win an MVP someday, Tatum has accomplished quite a bit already, even if he's been clearly just below the elite level.

5. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Haliburton's game might not lend itself to enough offensive production to get an MVP award. He's good for 20 points per game and might lead the NBA in assists, as he did in 2023-24. The Indiana Pacers' All-Star guard makes three-pointers at a high rate and at relatively high volume — three per game at 38.8% in 2024-25 — but he simply might not look for his own shot enough to rack up MVP scoring numbers.

The model would be Steve Nash's back-to-back MVPs in 2005 and 2006. Nash wasn't your typical NBA star, not were his individual statistics overwhelming, but he was the offensive engine to the NBA's best offense. That could be Haliburton, who has proved to be an incredible clutch player in these playoffs, orchestrating three massive comebacks where Haliburton lit opponents up in the final seconds. If more of that scoring happened in the regular season, he could steal an MVP.

Next season only: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks

It's been seven seasons since Anthony Davis finished third in MVP voting. Since then, he's won a title and made four All-Star teams, but struggled with injuries. If Davis can stay healthy, he averages around 25 points and is one of the most impactful defensive players in basketball, especially if playing alongside a center with the Dallas Mavericks unlocks even more shot-blocking.

Plus, he's got an incredible narrative. If the Mavericks add presumptive No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg and get Kyrie Irving back, they could be a fearsome team, even after the much-derided trade that sent Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Davis. 

If Davis leads an unlikely charge to a top-4 seed, he's talented enough to be a dark horse MVP candidate — if his body will cooperate.