Three Reasons Why Novak Djokovic Won’t Win Another Grand Slam

Novak Djokovic, with 24 Grand Slam titles, is arguably the greatest tennis player in history. His dominance over the past two decades, marked by unparalleled consistency, physical prowess, and mental fortitude, has set a benchmark in the sport. However, as of now, several factors suggest that the Serbian superstar may face significant challenges in adding to his Grand Slam tally. The following three reasons highlight why winning another major could prove elusive.

Three Reasons Djokovic Won’t Win Another Grand Slam

1. Physical Decline and Age-Related Challenges

Before this season, 2018 was the last time Djokovic lost three matches in a row. He has already lost three matches in a row on two different occasions this year. He is pushing 38, and it’s showing. Djokovic has lost in the first match in four of his last five tournaments, which is concerning. His rally tolerance has declined significantly, and the results back it up. His record on medium-fast, hard courts (Brisbane, Australian Open, Miami), where rallies are shorter, is 12-3 this season, while on slower courts (Doha, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Madrid), he is 0-4.

Father Time eventually catches up with everyone, and Djokovic is no exception. He struggled (by his standards) throughout 2024, and there is nothing to suggest that 2025 will be any different. Stringing together the form and fitness he needs for seven best of 5 matches in a row to win is more unlikely now. The injuries he has sustained to his knee over the last year or so have had an impact. He doesn’t seem to have anywhere near as much endurance in points either. I also think that even a slight decline can make a massive difference in this sport, which has such fine margins.

He hits plenty of cool highlight winners now, but his movement and defense have declined or are inconsistent in every match. And his game has never been naturally very aggressive; that’s not really in his comfort zone. So, even though it works sometimes, it’s not going to be a high-percentage strategy for him over seven matches.

2. Mental and Motivational Shifts

Speaking on his form after an early exit in Madrid, Djokovic said, “Kind of a new reality for me, trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament. But that’s, I guess, that’s the circle of life and the career. Grand Slams are where I really want to play the best tennis. I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do that in Roland Garros, but I’ll do my best.” It must be hard to say this out loud, but it’s not a good sign.

Djokovic always had something to prove. It was always something that someone would point out as a hole in his CV. For example, the last thing was the Olympics. Now, almost everyone has accepted that he is the greatest, and he is no longer questioned as he was before. At the same time, his biggest rivals have all retired, and he doesn’t feel threatened by anyone.

How many “turn back the clock” performances are left in him?

Certainly not many at this rate. He doesn’t even look disappointed anymore when he gets bundled out of tournaments. He’s achieved everything he’s wanted to achieve and broken almost every major record in the sport.  There’s little to no incentive for him to keep going. He has said multiple times that playing for his country and Grand Slams are his biggest goals now. His mentality and motivation during Slams will likely increase, which may help him through some matches, but it would still be a gigantic task to go all the way and win.

3. Competitive Challenges and Loss of Aura

Novak Djokovic doesn’t take non-Slam tournaments that seriously now, so it would be hard for him to get back inside the top-four ranking. Last year, he was seeded No. 1 at the French Open and No. 2 at Wimbledon. Paths will indeed be trickier with a lower ranking. He may need to go past Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz or even something as challenging as this year’s Australian Open with Alcaraz, Zverev, and Sinner in the last three rounds.

I don’t personally doubt his ability to make deep runs just yet, at least not on faster surfaces. But Alcaraz at Wimbledon and Sinner on hardcourt Slams seem like really big obstacles at this stage of his career, even if he’s playing his absolute best tennis. On clay, Djokovic will face numerous challenges from the start, and he doesn’t look anywhere near his best on the dirt this season. He has also withdrawn from Rome, his most successful clay-court tournament.

Too many guys now see him as beatable, which he is. He has lost the aura that likely earned him a set right away in many matches over the last decade. If the belief of players that can beat him over three sets carries over into five sets, he might be in serious trouble of more early exits. The next couple of months are crucial for the Serb and his chances of winning another Slam.