What can we expect from Justin Verlander at this point in his career?

Justin Verlander is more than just a former MLB MVP; he is one of the few faces who defined an era in baseball history. In a career spanning two decades, the lionized hurler won three Cy Young awards, an MVP, an ALCS MVP, a Triple Crown and Rookie of the Year. Now, it would seem Verlander is set to ride off into the Bay Area sunset.

This past offseason, the San Francisco Giants took a gamble on the future Hall of Fame starter, signing him to a one-year, $15 million deal. Going into his age-42 season and coming off an injury-hampered down year that saw him post a career-worst 5.48 ERA, it would be hard to imagine the Giants viewed Verlander as the solution to their pitching problems. Still, having won a Cy Young Award in 2022 followed by putting up exceptional numbers in 2023, there was no telling what the veteran righty had left in the tank. This year, we’re finding out.

Before landing on the IL, Verlander was pitching to a 4.33 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 52 innings pitched, accumulating three losses in 10 starts while still searching for his first win. The once-formidable ace has struggled to miss barrels, limit exit velocity or prevent walks — three things he excelled at in 2022. His average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph is his third-lowest recorded mark since tracking began, ahead of only two seasons thwarted by injury: 2015 and 2024. In addition, his .257 opponent batting average is at its second-highest since the 2015 season, again, exceeded only by 2024.

From 2016 through 2022, Verlander maintained a reputation as an elite strikeout artist. Since 2023, his walk rate began to climb while his command wavered, reaching 3.6 walks per nine innings (BB/9) this season, the second-highest of his career, lagging only his 2008 season.

Having gone through other down seasons that saw him finish with ERAs north of where his 2025 figure stands, Verlander is no stranger to bouncing back in Cy Young fashion. However, at his age, we can’t expect his arsenal to be any sharper than what we’ve already seen this year. His velocity, which has been declining since 2022, appears to be on an irreversible downtrend. And since he has become more injury-prone as he ages, he will likely continue to lose his effectiveness with time.

Once their pitching legend returns from the IL, Giants fans can only hope he can buck the aging process, if just for a while, and finish the season more gracefully than he started. Verlander ending his career on a high note would be like a bow atop his rock-solid Hall of Fame case.