Where the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture sits after Mexico City

Shane van Gisbergen's victory in Mexico City shook up the NASCAR Cup Series playoff grid in a big way. With 10 races remaining in the regular season, here's what the playoff bubble looks like. 

11. Chase Elliott (+146) 

12. Tyler Reddick (+123) 

13. Bubba Wallace (+57) 

A solid 12th-place run keeps Wallace nearly a full race above the cut line for now, but another surprise winner from the below the cut line could put him in danger. Staying above Chase Briscoe and Alex Bowman should be the goal for Wallace for now. 

14. Chase Briscoe (+39) 

Despite a seventh-place finish in Mexico City, Briscoe is now firmly on the bubble as the circuit heads to Pocono. It's a less than ideal place for Briscoe to be in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing, but he has better equipment under him than several of his contemporaries around the bubble. 

15. Alex Bowman (+22) 

A strong fourth-place finish in Mexico City stopped the bleeding for Bowman, but he's in a similar position to Briscoe — being on the bubble isn't the best look for a Hendrick Motorsports driver. Still, Bowman is a solid bet to point his way into the postseason, but don't be surprised if he's able to win a race before the playoffs begin. 

16. Chris Buescher (-19) 

Buescher's consistency has kept him above the cut line, but van Gisbergen's win puts him as on the bubble as a driver can possibly be. There's little margin for error for the No. 17 team over the next 10 weeks, and a win might be necessary if Buescher wants to return to the playoffs. 

17. Ryan Preece (-19) 

Preece was tied for the 16th and final playoff spot going into Mexico City, but now finds himself battling his RFK Racing teammate in Buescher on the bubble. Preece might be in the midst of a career year, but he'll need several heroic drives in order to make the playoffs for the first time. 

18. Michael McDowell (-43) 

A fifth-place run in Mexico City has put McDowell back into the thick of the playoff conversation. Keep an eye on him at the road courses of Chicago and Sonoma, both of which could be races he could win. 

19. AJ Allmendinger (-45) 

A 13th-place finish in Mexico City had to be disappoint for Allmendinger, who couldn't capitalize on a key opportunity at a road course. Like McDowell, Allmendinger likely has Chicago and Sonoma circled. 

20. Kyle Busch (-50) 

A Lap 7 crash and subsequent 37th-place finish in Mexico City have Busch staring down the barrel of missing the playoffs for the second year in a row. Busch has shown more speed this year than he did in 2024, but it looks like he'll need a victory to return to the postseason.