Examining what Ace Bailey is trying to achieve with pre-draft approach

Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey is widely expected to be a top-five pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Such is the strength of this class, he would be the likely top pick in many draft years. In a fascinating turn of events, Bailey canceled his workout with the Philadelphia 76ers, the team holding pick three in the draft, making him the only U.S.-based prospect still to visit any teams.

While visits don’t hold the weight they once did, given every second a prospect is on the court is available to teams in high definition, his decision raises the question: What is his endgame?

Bailey clearly has star potential. A big, athletic wing and an astounding shot maker, Bailey has the potential to be an elite two-way player, should he dedicate himself to defense. Like most prospects, he has his concerns. He is a terrible passer, with no vision and seemingly little wont to give up the ball. That inability to pass means that defenses play him for the shot, leading to some of the most contested attempts you’ll see. To his credit, he’s good enough to make enough of those attempts, but it’s not conducive to winning basketball.

The deficiencies in Bailey’s game are extremely correctable. Playing against the best athletes in the world should force him to consider using his teammates every now and again. Defensively, he has already shown that he can lock down and stay in front of his man, whilst being a good weakside defender.

These are known knowns. They don’t necessitate Bailey canceling workouts. Does that mean that there is something that his representation does not want teams finding out about? Is there an injury concern? Is there a weakness to his game or athletic makeup that he doesn’t want teams to discover? Unlikely. This writer believes this is a move designed to engineer Bailey being drafted to a team of his liking.

It has been rumored that Bailey has little interest in going to Charlotte or Utah, which hold picks four and five, respectively. Given his similarities to Brandon Miller, the Hornets' stance makes sense. Utah, however, appears to be a great basketball fit. With an elite rim protector behind him and solid playmaking in the backcourt, Utah has young talent on its list. However, they lack a true finisher, somebody who can go and get them a bucket. Bailey would be allowed to grow with the rest of his young team, allowing Utah to move on from Lauri Markkanen. It seems a perfect fit, yet Utah is still seen as a non-player-friendly market.

The Sixers also seem an ideal fit for Bailey’s talents. With Paul George clearly at the end of his peak, Bailey could learn from and eventually slot into PG’s role, forming a strong, if perimeter-oriented core with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain.

If Bailey is trying to engineer a fit to a particular team lower in the draft order, it likely will not succeed. Sixers president Daryl Morey is not one to be swayed by personality, steadfastly choosing talent over fit throughout his 20-year career. Likewise, Danny Ainge in Utah is well known as particularly stubborn. If they think Bailey is their man at five, and he’s available, he’ll be in Utah.

This situation reeks of poor representation. Bailey being advised to skip a workout with the team that would likely draft him is simply poor advice and achieves little. Josh Jackson refused workouts in his draft year and was still taken fourth. Ben Simmons refused to work out until the Sixers confirmed that they were taking him first overall, no matter what, forcing him to somewhat reluctantly agree to work out for the team.

Bailey is an elite talent. You have to admire his attempt to work where he wants for the next four years; this dance is more than likely to fail.