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Party crashers: Five dark-horse CFP candidates
In the 12-team College Football Playoff format, the beauty of the expanded bracket is the possibility of non-traditional powers getting a true crack at a national championship.
While the first year ended with heavyweights Ohio State and Notre Dame in the championship, schools like Indiana, SMU and Arizona State earned bids. Not many foresaw any of those schools getting an invite at the beginning of the season.
Who are the dark-horse candidates in 2025-26? Here's one team from each of the Power Four conferences, along with a Group of Five member that could crash the party.
ACC | Louisville
The Cardinals reached as high as No. 19 in last season's CFP rankings, but they lost four games by a combined 24 points, including seven-point losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami.
USC transfer Miller Moss (2,555 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT in 2024) will lead the offense at quarterback this season. Can he find some chemistry with fellow transfer wide receivers TreyShun Hurry (San Jose State) and Dacari Collins (NC State)?
If the Cardinals are to make the CFP, it will come down to the final three games of the season against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky.
Big Ten | Illinois
Like Louisville, Illinois wasn't too far from the CFP last season. The Illini were 10-3 with two losses coming against Penn State and Oregon. Bret Bielema's team is once again led by quarterback Luke Altmyer (2,717 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT).
In the transfer era, returning 18 starters is nearly unheard of. Is Illinois ready for the next step? Keep an eye on Oct. 11 when Ohio State visits Champaign. It will be a good measuring stick of where the Illini are at.
NEW: College Football Playoff Prediction with straight seeding via @AriWasserman
— On3 (@On3sports) June 23, 2025
Do you agree? https://t.co/pem20AB3qg pic.twitter.com/AjxePH7nF0
Big 12 | Texas Tech
Spending $10 million in the transfer portal doesn't sound like dark-horse activity, but we'll give the Red Raiders the nod in the Big 12. Texas Tech hasn't had a double-digit-win season since 2008, but it has built a contender for 2025.
Spending money is one thing, but landing talent is another. It sounds like Texas Tech did both. According to 247Sports, the Red Raiders signed 10 of the top-20-rated transfers in the Big 12, including three of the top four.
12 Red Raiders named to @philsteele042’s Preseason All-Big 12 Teams pic.twitter.com/ovlJ5jaFDJ
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) June 19, 2025
SEC | Florida
After a rocky start last season, Florida stayed the course and finished 8-4, including a four-game win streak to finish the year that featured wins over No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss and rival Florida State.
Florida has momentum for this season as sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway (1,915 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) returns. His continued development is the key to Florida's season.
We'll know early on if the CFP is in the cards or not. Florida's schedule from Weeks 3 to 7 looks like this...
- Sept. 13 | at LSU
- Sept. 20 | at Miami
- Oct. 4 | vs. Texas
- Oct. 11 | at Texas A&M
Group of Five | James Madison
Keep an eye on the Dukes. While Boise State is the favorite to grab the Group of Five bid, James Madison is certainly a dark-horse candidate. The Dukes went 9-4 last season under new head coach Bob Chesney.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III (2,598 yards, 26 TD, 4 INT, 442 rush yards, 7 rush TD) returns, and JMU boasts one of the best backfields in the nation. Losing three starters on the offensive line raises questions.
More must-reads:
- One of these four teams will win the SEC championship in 2025
- Arch Manning's father shares influence of Super Bowl-winning uncles
- The 'NBA Summer League MVPs' quiz
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