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Party crashers: Five dark-horse CFP candidates
In the 12-team College Football Playoff format, the beauty of the expanded bracket is the possibility of non-traditional powers getting a true crack at a national championship.
While the first year ended with heavyweights Ohio State and Notre Dame in the championship, schools like Indiana, SMU and Arizona State earned bids. Not many foresaw any of those schools getting an invite at the beginning of the season.
Who are the dark-horse candidates in 2025-26? Here's one team from each of the Power Four conferences, along with a Group of Five member that could crash the party.
ACC | Louisville
The Cardinals reached as high as No. 19 in last season's CFP rankings, but they lost four games by a combined 24 points, including seven-point losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami.
USC transfer Miller Moss (2,555 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT in 2024) will lead the offense at quarterback this season. Can he find some chemistry with fellow transfer wide receivers TreyShun Hurry (San Jose State) and Dacari Collins (NC State)?
If the Cardinals are to make the CFP, it will come down to the final three games of the season against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky.
Big Ten | Illinois
Like Louisville, Illinois wasn't too far from the CFP last season. The Illini were 10-3 with two losses coming against Penn State and Oregon. Bret Bielema's team is once again led by quarterback Luke Altmyer (2,717 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT).
In the transfer era, returning 18 starters is nearly unheard of. Is Illinois ready for the next step? Keep an eye on Oct. 11 when Ohio State visits Champaign. It will be a good measuring stick of where the Illini are at.
NEW: College Football Playoff Prediction with straight seeding via @AriWasserman
— On3 (@On3sports) June 23, 2025
Do you agree? https://t.co/pem20AB3qg pic.twitter.com/AjxePH7nF0
Big 12 | Texas Tech
Spending $10 million in the transfer portal doesn't sound like dark-horse activity, but we'll give the Red Raiders the nod in the Big 12. Texas Tech hasn't had a double-digit-win season since 2008, but it has built a contender for 2025.
Spending money is one thing, but landing talent is another. It sounds like Texas Tech did both. According to 247Sports, the Red Raiders signed 10 of the top-20-rated transfers in the Big 12, including three of the top four.
12 Red Raiders named to @philsteele042’s Preseason All-Big 12 Teams pic.twitter.com/ovlJ5jaFDJ
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) June 19, 2025
SEC | Florida
After a rocky start last season, Florida stayed the course and finished 8-4, including a four-game win streak to finish the year that featured wins over No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss and rival Florida State.
Florida has momentum for this season as sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway (1,915 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) returns. His continued development is the key to Florida's season.
We'll know early on if the CFP is in the cards or not. Florida's schedule from Weeks 3 to 7 looks like this...
- Sept. 13 | at LSU
- Sept. 20 | at Miami
- Oct. 4 | vs. Texas
- Oct. 11 | at Texas A&M
Group of Five | James Madison
Keep an eye on the Dukes. While Boise State is the favorite to grab the Group of Five bid, James Madison is certainly a dark-horse candidate. The Dukes went 9-4 last season under new head coach Bob Chesney.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III (2,598 yards, 26 TD, 4 INT, 442 rush yards, 7 rush TD) returns, and JMU boasts one of the best backfields in the nation. Losing three starters on the offensive line raises questions.
More must-reads:
- One of these four teams will win the SEC championship in 2025
- Arch Manning's father shares influence of Super Bowl-winning uncles
- The 'NFL QB rushing TD leaders' quiz
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Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin breaks silence on reported ultimatum
The Ole Miss Rebels reportedly gave head coach Lane Kiffin a deadline of Nov. 28 to decide whether he wants to stay with the school. That was news to him. On Tuesday, Kiffin joined "The Pat McAfee Show" to discuss his future. The coach is widely considered a top candidate for the head-coaching jobs with the LSU Tigers and Florida Gators. He denied that Ole Miss gave him an ultimatum, which Stewart Mandel of The Athletic first reported. Lane Kiffin calls report false "That's absolutely not true," Kiffin said. "There hasn't been anything like that at all. And so, I don't know where that came from, like a lot of stuff that comes out there." After denying the report, Kiffin reiterated how much he loves Oxford and said he's ecstatic the team is in the thick of the College Football Playoff Hunt. As of Tuesday, ESPN's Football Power Index gives the 10-1 Rebels an 89.1% chance to make the CFP, the third-best odds in the SEC behind the Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) and Texas A M Aggies (10-0). "Like I said, man, we're having a blast," he said. "It just couldn't be better. Like I said, you pray for things. Our fans prayed for this type of thing, and now we're in the middle of it. So, enjoy it." Is Lane Kiffin telling the truth? While the school may not have issued an ultimatum, ESPN's Mark Schlabach reported that Ole Miss is "pressing" Kiffin and his agent, Jimmy Sexton, to inform the school of his decision soon. Schlabach added that Rebels athletic director Keith Carter wants to know his plans by this upcoming weekend. Kiffin may be able to provide an answer soon. He has reportedly met with Florida and LSU. Kiffin may ultimately stay with Ole Miss, where he has compiled a 54-19 record in six seasons. He's already making $9M this season, and the Rebels are reportedly willing to match contract offers from LSU and Florida. Still, Kiffin should make it clear what he wants to do soon. The Rebels host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28. He doesn't want rumors about his future to distract his team, especially when it can get even closer to securing the school's first CFP berth in the upcoming rivalry game.
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In LeBron James' historic season debut, Lakers storm past Jazz
Luka Doncic scored 37 points with 10 assists and LeBron James added 11 points in 30 minutes of his season debut as the Los Angeles Lakers rallied for a 140-125 victory over the visiting Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Austin Reaves scored 26 points, Deandre Ayton added 20 points with 14 rebounds. Jake LaRavia had 16 points as Los Angeles won its third consecutive game. However, the game was historic for James and the NBA After missing the first 14 games of the season because of sciatica on his right side, James took the court to become the first player in NBA history to play in 23 consecutive seasons. Keyonte George scored 33 points and Lauri Markkanen added 31 for the Jazz, who lost for the fifth time in their past seven games. Svi Mykhailiuk and Ace Bailey each scored 13 points and Jusuf Nurkic added 10 points with 10 rebounds in Utah's only road contest in a stretch of seven games. The Lakers didn't take their first lead until going up 89-88 on a Doncic layup with 3:36 remaining in the third quarter. The basket was part of an 8-0 run that gave Los Angeles a 91-88 advantage. The Lakers dominated from there. They led 104-93 through three quarters after trailing by as many as seven points earlier in the period. Doncic scored 17 points in the third quarter alone when Los Angeles had a 37-22 scoring advantage. It was more of the same in the fourth quarter as the Lakers had a 36-32 advantage and finished with a season high in points. The Jazz led the entire first half, taking an 11-2 lead 3:19 into the game and going up 16-6 five minutes into the opening quarter. James had a turnover in the opening minute and missed his only shot of the first quarter as Utah took a 36-27 lead. James' first basket of the season came on a 3-pointer with 8:20 remaining in the first half. He scored seven points in the second quarter, while going 2 of 2 from 3-point range in the period. The Jazz led 71-67 at halftime by shooting 55.3% from the floor as George had 23 points and Markkanen added 22.
Major domino falls for Yankees with Trent Grisham decision
Outfielder Trent Grisham is accepting his $22.025M qualifying offer and will return to the New York Yankees in 2026, reports ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. Players who accept a QO are considered free-agent signings and are thus ineligible to be traded prior to the following June 15 unless they consent to the move. Trent Grisham had a breakout season It’s at least a modest surprise, as Grisham is coming off a breakout year at the plate that saw him club a career-high 34 home runs. He slashed .235/.348/.464, thanks in no small part to a career-best 14.1% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate that stood as the second-lowest in his career. Between that production, the fact that Grisham only just turned 29 earlier this month, and a thin outfield market in free agency, the stars seemed to align for him to pursue a weighty multi-year contract this winter. Instead, Grisham returns to the site of his breakout and will hold down a key role in an outfield that’s also currently slated to include Jasson Dominguez and Aaron Judge. The Yankees are interested in re-signing Cody Bellinger, have been linked to Kyle Tucker and also have DH Giancarlo Stanton at least loosely in the outfield mix. (He played 132 outfield innings in 2025.) How does Trent Grisham's decision affect the Yankees? Grisham’s return muddies the waters a bit, but GM Brian Cashman said recently that even if he accepted, it wouldn’t impact the team’s pursuit of a new deal with Bellinger, via the New York Post’s Greg Joyce. The Yankees wouldn’t have made the QO to Grisham if they believed his acceptance was a roadblock to bringing back Bellinger or signing Tucker. They’re surely glad to have him back. Even though his defensive grades took an unexpected downturn in ’25, he has the best defensive track record in center of the Yankees’ in-house options. While Grisham could have looked to cash in this winter, he’ll instead take a hefty one-year payday in what amounts to a bet on himself. Though he’s a left-handed bat, his power output was hardly a product of Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch. In fact, Grisham hit just .195/.326/.376 at home this season, compared to .254/.364/.506 on the road. If he can replicate this year’s huge power production, he could hit the market next offseason on the back of consecutive plus seasons at the plate and without the encumbrance of a qualifying offer. A big enough showing this year could realistically position Grisham for a $100M+ contract — particularly if his defensive grades rebound, too. The looming potential for a work stoppage is one other wrinkle to consider, but if anything, today’s glut of QO decisions suggests that players aren’t necessarily going to shy away from short-term deals that put them on the open market next year — at least not en masse. Grisham is one of four players to accept the QO, joining Gleyber Torres, Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff in that regard. In a vacuum, any one of the four accepting his QO wouldn’t be considered a major surprise — but all four accepting in the same offseason is downright atypical. This marks the first time since the inception of the qualifying offer that more than three players have accepted a QO. With Grisham back in the fold, the Yankees’ projected payroll for the upcoming season jumps to about $263M, per RosterResource. They’ll now have about $286M of luxury-tax obligations, placing them just over the third penalty line. That means that the Yankees’ top pick in the 2026 draft will drop by 10 places, unless they’re able to sneak their luxury count back under $284M. Given the wide swath of offseason dealings that’s likely still on the table for Cashman and Co., that doesn’t seem to be a very likely outcome. In all likelihood, the Yankees will wind up in the top CBT penalty tier, just as they’ve done in each of the past three seasons. How does Trent Grisham's decision affect the rest of MLB? Turning to the rest of the league, Grisham’s early removal from the free-agent market — to a team that didn’t clearly need to retain him, no less — subtracts arguably the top center field option from the market. Bellinger, of course, can still play center but barely did so in 2025. Most teams probably consider him more of a corner outfielder/first baseman who can play occasional center field. Harrison Bader and Cedric Mullins are the two most notable options still on the market, though the former has been more of a part-time player and the latter is looking to bounce back from an awful 2025 showing. The market was light on center fielders to begin with and is even more so now, so teams looking for help at the position might be more inclined to turn to the trade market to address that deficiency.
Jerry Jones shares reason CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were benched
Dallas Cowboys stars CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were both disciplined by the team for the start of Monday night’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders, and we now have a better idea of why. Lamb and Pickens both remained on the sideline for the Cowboys’ entire first drive in their 33-16 Week 11 win over the Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. The ESPN broadcast said Dallas made a “coach’s decision” to bench the two star wide receivers for the beginning of the game. Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer told reporters after his team’s win that that there were “a couple things missed” with Lamb and Pickens, which is why neither player saw the field on the first series. Jerry Jones elaborated further during the Cowboys owner’s Tuesday appearance on 105.3 The Fan. Jones suggested Lamb and Pickens were late to a team meeting. There had been speculation that Lamb and Pickens broke curfew, especially with the Cowboys playing in Las Vegas. Some wondered if the two wideouts had hit the casino or a night club and did not return back to the team hotel in time. It does not sound like that was the case, however. The benching seems to have lit a fire under both Pickens and Lamb. Pickens had a monster game with 9 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown. Lamb hauled in 5 passes for 66 yards and a score. After Lamb scored, Schottenheimer went over and playfully hugged his two star wide receivers. Whatever the issue was, it was serious enough that Schottenheimer felt he needed to take action. It did not cost the Cowboys on Monday night, however, and there is clearly no bad blood between the coach and players.
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