Why 2025 NBA Draft is unlike any other in recent memory

The Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers — the teams holding the top three selections in Wednesday's NBA Draft — are expected to contend for playoff spots next season. Additionally, the Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks, who own picks nine through 13, are trying to become relevant, and the Spurs have another lottery pick at No. 14.

The No. 7-pick-bearing New Orleans Pelicans, fresh off a down year with injuries, have the pieces to win 49 games again like they did in 2023-24. 

This year's lottery will realistically feature only four teams who are in "rebuild" mode — the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets. 

The turn of events bucks a significant trend from recent NBA Drafts. 

In 2024, the Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder were the only teams with lottery picks expected to contend. A year before, only the Mavs — who lucked into Dereck Lively II — were a legitimate playoff team. 

The 2021 draft was the only recent class that saw a true heavyweight in the lottery — the Golden State Warriors selected No. 7 (Jonathan Kuminga) and No. 14 (Moses Moody) before winning the championship. 

Why does any of this matter?

The playoff-caliber teams in this year's lottery may be forced to prioritize win-now players over projects, as choosing the latter could result in numerous DNPs and G League assignments. 

Check last year's draft when Memphis selected Zach Edey, a 22-year-old with four years of college experience, instead of a teenager. And sure enough, Edey was able to contribute right away, as a starter.

To that end, the top-seeded Thunder and Rockets couldn't develop teenagers Nikola Topic (No. 12 pick) and Reed Sheppard (No. 2 pick), respectively, because they were too busy winning games.

A dilemma for lottery teams

Teams at the top of the lottery could face a similar predicament this season. Will the 76ers be comfortable giving VJ Edgecombe or Ace Bailey enough playing time while making a playoff push? Could Cooper Flagg's development suffer on a team full of veterans? The Duke prodigy projects as a four or five in the modern NBA, and the Mavericks have a battery of front-court players on the roster. 

This exact dilemma hampered the development of James Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody, with the Warriors' infamous dual-timeline approach of developing teenagers and contending at the same time. 

One wonders if teams in this year's lottery year are battling the same question: draft win-now players or potential? The latter comes with superior long-term rewards but requires patience and years of growth. Most teams in this year's lottery don't have that leeway.