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Party crashers: Five dark-horse CFP candidates
In the 12-team College Football Playoff format, the beauty of the expanded bracket is the possibility of non-traditional powers getting a true crack at a national championship.
While the first year ended with heavyweights Ohio State and Notre Dame in the championship, schools like Indiana, SMU and Arizona State earned bids. Not many foresaw any of those schools getting an invite at the beginning of the season.
Who are the dark-horse candidates in 2025-26? Here's one team from each of the Power Four conferences, along with a Group of Five member that could crash the party.
ACC | Louisville
The Cardinals reached as high as No. 19 in last season's CFP rankings, but they lost four games by a combined 24 points, including seven-point losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami.
USC transfer Miller Moss (2,555 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT in 2024) will lead the offense at quarterback this season. Can he find some chemistry with fellow transfer wide receivers TreyShun Hurry (San Jose State) and Dacari Collins (NC State)?
If the Cardinals are to make the CFP, it will come down to the final three games of the season against Clemson, SMU and Kentucky.
Big Ten | Illinois
Like Louisville, Illinois wasn't too far from the CFP last season. The Illini were 10-3 with two losses coming against Penn State and Oregon. Bret Bielema's team is once again led by quarterback Luke Altmyer (2,717 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT).
In the transfer era, returning 18 starters is nearly unheard of. Is Illinois ready for the next step? Keep an eye on Oct. 11 when Ohio State visits Champaign. It will be a good measuring stick of where the Illini are at.
NEW: College Football Playoff Prediction with straight seeding via @AriWasserman
— On3 (@On3sports) June 23, 2025
Do you agree? https://t.co/pem20AB3qg pic.twitter.com/AjxePH7nF0
Big 12 | Texas Tech
Spending $10 million in the transfer portal doesn't sound like dark-horse activity, but we'll give the Red Raiders the nod in the Big 12. Texas Tech hasn't had a double-digit-win season since 2008, but it has built a contender for 2025.
Spending money is one thing, but landing talent is another. It sounds like Texas Tech did both. According to 247Sports, the Red Raiders signed 10 of the top-20-rated transfers in the Big 12, including three of the top four.
12 Red Raiders named to @philsteele042’s Preseason All-Big 12 Teams pic.twitter.com/ovlJ5jaFDJ
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) June 19, 2025
SEC | Florida
After a rocky start last season, Florida stayed the course and finished 8-4, including a four-game win streak to finish the year that featured wins over No. 22 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss and rival Florida State.
Florida has momentum for this season as sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway (1,915 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT) returns. His continued development is the key to Florida's season.
We'll know early on if the CFP is in the cards or not. Florida's schedule from Weeks 3 to 7 looks like this...
- Sept. 13 | at LSU
- Sept. 20 | at Miami
- Oct. 4 | vs. Texas
- Oct. 11 | at Texas A&M
Group of Five | James Madison
Keep an eye on the Dukes. While Boise State is the favorite to grab the Group of Five bid, James Madison is certainly a dark-horse candidate. The Dukes went 9-4 last season under new head coach Bob Chesney.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III (2,598 yards, 26 TD, 4 INT, 442 rush yards, 7 rush TD) returns, and JMU boasts one of the best backfields in the nation. Losing three starters on the offensive line raises questions.
More must-reads:
- One of these four teams will win the SEC championship in 2025
- Arch Manning's father shares influence of Super Bowl-winning uncles
- The '250-strikeout MLB seasons' quiz
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Major college football coach says athletes, society 'softer'
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Jeff Hafley hints at Lukas Van Ness growing into a problem
Luka Van Ness has been through two seasons in the NFL, but the Green Bay Packers linebacker hasn’t quite yet lived up to the hype that came with him when the team took him 13th overall in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. In his rookie season, the former Iowa Hawkeyes star played in 17 games and recorded four sacks. He took a step back in 2024, recording just three sacks in 17 games. His Pro Football Focus grade slid down from 64.0 in 2023 to 53.8 in 2024. But at least he’s been durable for Green Bay, having not missed a game thus far in his career. Availability is one thing, though. It’s what he does when he’s on the field that the Packers want to see improve. Year 3 for Van Ness could be where he truly breaks out, an exciting thought for the Packers, who were 12th in 2024 with a defensive sack rate of 7.42 percent. Packers DC shares 2025 outlook for Van Ness Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who is entering his second year in the role with the team, is feeling optimistic about Van Ness. Here’s what Hafley said about Van Ness, via Green Bay’s official website). “He’s a year older. He’s got another year in the scheme. I think he’s starting to understand the position, how to use his hands, how to set edges, some pass rush tools, some counter moves. It was a good offseason for him truthfully. He did a good job at OTAs and then he left here and he put in a lot of work. He came back in really good shape, he’s healthy. I think he’s starting to feel comfortable. DeMarcus (Covington) has done a really good job with him and that entire group, but again, it’s still early.” At just 24 years old, Van Ness likely hasn’t reached his peak yet, and if he does take a leap in 2025, that should be a huge plus for the Packers.
Report: Knicks made a signing based on Giannis Antetokounmpo trade belief
The New York Knicks aren't waiting for the offseason drama surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks to end before taking care of a key signing for their roster this summer. Per Shams Charania of ESPN, the Knicks signed Mikal Bridges to a four-year deal worth $150M on Thursday. "New York Knicks forward Mikal Bridges has agreed to a four-year, $150 million contract extension with the franchise, agents Sam Goldfeder and Jordan Gertler of Excel Sports Management tell ESPN," Charania posted on X. "The new deal includes a player option for 2029-30 and a trade kicker." Bridges' extension might not have happened if the Knicks believed they had a serious shot to land an elite player in a trade this summer. Per Ashish Mathur of Hoops Wire, the Knicks made their decision to sign Bridges to a new deal after they learned Antetokounmpo plans to stay in Milwaukee. "The New York Knicks got intel that Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t request a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks before signing Mikal Bridges to an extension, an NBA source told Hoops Wire on Thursday," Mathur wrote. "...The Knicks would have pursued Giannis Antetokounmpo had the two-time MVP requested a trade from the Bucks. All signs point toward Antetokounmpo remaining in Milwaukee." Due to the player option Bridges has in his new deal, the guard cannot be traded for at least six months. Mathur's report signals the reality that New York wants to land another star to pair with Jalen Brunson. However, the Knicks might not make a big splash until the trade deadline next year. The Knicks need a big man who can score and play defense at a high level in the playoffs, something Karl-Anthony Towns was unable to do in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Terry McLaurin’s trade request somehow ends with the Cowboys getting clowned
There's no way of sugarcoating the Washington Commanders' contract standoff with Terry McLaurin. It is, in a word, unfortunate. Coming off of their best season in more than 30 years, the fan-favorite wide receiver is unhappy with contract negotiations and has now officially requested a trade. It's been a stunning, disheartening development that has derailed a significant chunk of the positive energy in D.C. this offseason. If it's any solace, there is one thing Washington can do — always. That, of course, is laughing at the Dallas Cowboys for managing to screw things up even worse with one of their superstars. Micah Parsons' drama makes Commanders' Terry McLaurin saga look like standard business Leave it to Jerry Jones to come through in the clutch by alienating one of his best players right as Washington's dysfunction had taken center stage. That's what has happened with Micah Parsons, who officially let it be known that he no longer wants to be in Dallas. This does not read as a negotiating tactic, the way McLaurin's situation can still be interpreted as. It doesn't read as if there's any chance Parsons' relationship with the Cowboys can still be repaired. It reads as "This is personal, and I'm out." There's also much less of a leg to stand on here from Dallas' standpoint. With McLaurin, at least the Commanders' front office can contend that he's a month away from being on the wrong side of 30 years old and is asking for more money than he may be worth a few years from now. Parsons, on the other hand, is only seeking his second NFL contract. In theory, it should take him through the peak of his career. The former Penn State standout, who is already a two-time All-Pro in only four seasons, should be getting the type of deal that's richer than any player at his position before him. Most teams in the NFL would have no problems ponying up the cash, but not the Cowboys. Jones has made a history of stringing players along when it comes to contract talks. CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott were the most recent examples last summer. That may work with some players, but Parsons is having none of it. The funniest outcome that could come from this, of course, is that Parsons ends up in Washington. It's doubtful that either team would trade their disgruntled star within the division, but if it reaches the point of no return with McLaurin, Adam Peters has a solid head start on a package for him. It's also worth noting that the 2021 first-round pick still maintains a close relationship with Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, his former defensive coordinator. Regardless, this was the best news any Commanders fan could have hoped for. Not only does the rest of the NFL move on from talking about McLaurin, but it comes at the expense of Washington's biggest rival. More Commanders news and analysis
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