Stats show where Bengals QB Joe Burrow needs to improve to bolster MVP chances

For a mailbag published on June 18, NFL insider Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated named Cincinnati Bengals star quarterback Joe Burrow his pick to win the Most Valuable Player Award for the 2025 regular season. 

On Tuesday, ESPN shared how Burrow may need to improve during the upcoming campaign to get his hands on at least that trophy in February 2026. 

"In 2024, Burrow was third in Total QBR (74.7)," the ESPN piece noted. "But in the fourth quarter, Burrow's QBR dropped to 12th at 62.8. While he did have 12 touchdowns in the final quarter, he also threw five interceptions -- as many as Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson combined."

Pro Football Reference stats show that Burrow ended the 2024 regular season leading the league with 4,918 passing yards, an average of 289.3 passing yards per game, 43 touchdowns through the air, 460 completions and 652 pass attempts. That said, the 9-8 Bengals missed the playoffs. 

Allen's Buffalo Bills, Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, Mahomes' Kansas City Chiefs and Hurts' Philadelphia Eagles all qualified for the postseason tournament. Allen became a first-time MVP, while Hurts and the Eagles ultimately defeated Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX.

Earlier in the offseason, the Bengals did Burrow a solid by signing wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, wideout Tee Higgins and tight end Mike Gesicki to new deals. However, the Bengals remained involved in contract disputes with veteran pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson and rookie defensive lineman Shemar Stewart as of the morning of June 25. 

"There's also a matter of Burrow's performance when throwing into tight windows," the ESPN article added. "When a receiver has a yard of separation or less by the time the ball arrives, Burrow posted the second-worst Total Expected Points Added in those situations (-54.4), according to Next Gen Stats. Only new Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith was worse."

As of Wednesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook had Burrow third among the betting favorites at +650 odds to claim the MVP Award for the 2025 regular season. Jackson and Allen were the co-favorites at +550 odds at that time. 

One wonders how the Bengals' handling of the Hendrickson and Stewart sagas could impact the MVP race later this year.