Do stats show why Rams were reluctant to commit to Matthew Stafford beyond 2025 season?

While the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford worked out an agreement in February for Stafford to remain the club's starting quarterback for the 2025 season, it's no secret the two sides are now taking things a year at a time. 

For a piece published on Tuesday, Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated shared some stats that may show why the Rams were reluctant to commit to Stafford beyond the upcoming campaign. 

"We saw some significant regression from Stafford last season as he ranked just 16th amongst quarterbacks in (expected points added) + completion percentage over expected," Verderame wrote. "The team overperformed as well. Despite winning the NFC West, the Rams finished 19th in the league in net yards per play (-0.2). With Stafford another year older, the 49ers bouncing back, and playing a first-place schedule, I think the Rams missing the playoffs at plus money is a great bet to make."

As of Tuesday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Rams at +130 odds to miss the next postseason tournament. 

Stafford turned 37 years old this past February, and he was the subject of some retirement rumors during the 2022 season when he was dealing with a spinal cord contusion. That said, he made 31 regular-season starts over the past two campaigns, and he nearly guided the Rams to a divisional-round playoff win over the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in January. 

According to Pro Football Reference stats, Stafford ended the 2024 regular season ranked 12th in the league with a 64.7 adjusted QBR and 11th with an average of 235.1 passing yards per game. Over 16 contests, he tossed 20 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. 

"I feel like he gets overlooked as one of the better quarterbacks of the decade," one unnamed AFC defensive coordinator said about Stafford while speaking with Verderame. "He’s as accurate as anyone, he can make all the throws and is as smart as they come."

As Verderame alluded to, the San Francisco 49ers expect to bounce back from a 6-11 2024 season in a big way after noteworthy players such as wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and left tackle Trent Williams dealt with significant injuries during the campaign. If the Rams end Week 18 without a playoff berth in hand, they could decide during the winter that they need a reset at the sport's most important position.