MLB's No. 1 overall picks are rarely franchise-changing players

The Washington Nationals have the No. 1 overall pick in Sunday's Major League Baseball Draft, and it is a position they have had success with in the past. The franchise's two previous No. 1 overall picks were starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (2009) and left-handed power hitter Bryce Harper (2010). Both players turned out to be superstars and significantly changed the path of the franchise.

Most teams are not that lucky, even with the top pick in the draft. 

While the No. 1 overall picks in the NFL, NHL and NBA drafts tend to be superstars -- and come with the expectation of being superstars -- baseball's draft has not paid off as much historically with the top spot. In fact, finding a franchise changing player, even with the No. 1 overall pick, seems to be a rare accomplishment for teams. 

Let's consider some numbers on the history of that pick.

• There have been 60 players selected No. 1 overall since the MLB Draft began in 1965.
• That group collectively averaged 21.2 career WAR (Wins Above Replacement). On average, that's a very good major league player. But it's not always a superstar. Just for comparisons sake, a player like Neil Walker accumulated 20 WAR in his 12-year career. That's what the average No. 1 overall pick has contributed as of this season. Good. But not great. 
• Only 17 have accumulated more than 30 career WAR, and only accumulated more than 40 WAR in their career. 
• Seven players have to this point accumulated a negative WAR, while four others never played in the major leagues at all. 
• Only 26 of the 60 players selected No. 1 overall (43%) have appeared in at least one All-Star game in their career to this point.
• Only 14 of the No. 1 overall picks have won a World Series at any point in their careers.
• Out of that World Series winning group, only seven of them did so with the team that drafted them. The list consists of Darryl Strawberry (New York Mets), Chipper Jones (Atlanta Braves), Darin Erstad (Los Angeles Angels), Pat Burrell (Philadelphia Phillies), Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals) and Carlos Correa (Houston Astros).
• Only four players selected No. 1 overall have already been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame: Harold Baines, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones and Joe Mauer. (Alex Rodriguez, the all-time leader in WAR among No. 1 overall picks, had a Hall of Fame career but has been kept out as part of the steroid era). 

That is not exactly highly encouraging stuff when it comes to the top pick. Given where the Nationals are right now, stuck in a perpetual rebuild since winning the World Series in 2019 and now going through a major organizational restructuring, they need to have success with this pick. If they do, it would be three-for-three with No. 1 overall picks. Historically speaking that would be significantly defying the odds. 

If you are a Nationals fan you should be excited about the possibility of finding a star, but also having your expectations set in reality. It may not be another Strasburg or Harper.