Wimbledon Men’s Final Deep Dive: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz

The 2025 Wimbledon men’s singles final pits World No. 1 Jannik Sinner against World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in a blockbuster rematch of their epic 2025 French Open final.  These two have dominated the recent Majors and are shaping to dominate it for the next 10 years.

This match is monumental not only for its high stakes—Sinner chasing his first Wimbledon title and Alcaraz aiming for a third consecutive crown, but also because it marks the second time in the Open Era that the same pair has contested the French Open and Wimbledon finals in the same year, following Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Here’s a preview of the highly anticipated contest.

Wimbledon Men’s Final Preview: Sinner vs Alcaraz

Jannik Sinner

Sinner, the No. 1 seed, is in his first Wimbledon final and aims to become the first Italian man to win the title and add to his three Major titles. He was at his absolute best against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals and played the best grass-court tennis of his life in the first two sets. The only player who has been able to trouble Sinner so far is Dimitrov, but Sinner was physically compromised in that match and has looked much better since.

Sinner has lost his last five matches against Alcaraz, including the French Open final, where he let slip three championship points. He’s 17-3 against top-10 opponents in his last 20 matches, but all three losses were to Alcaraz. He will be eager to end this losing streak and get his first Slam outside hard courts.

Keys to Success

Sinner must make more first serves compared to the French Open final. He averaged 54% in that match, and against an elite opponent like Alcaraz, it’s not enough. The good thing for Sinner is that he has averaged over 65% in his last two matches, and if he can bring those numbers, Alcaraz will have to work very hard to break Sinner’s serve, no matter how well he returns.

Alcaraz has less time to do anything with the ball on grass like he does on clay and other slower surfaces. Which is what he needs against Sinner. Grass takes Alcaraz’s timing away against Sinner’s power, and Sinner should try to rush Alcaraz by taking the ball early and playing aggressively. Don’t give Alcaraz any time on his shots and move him side to side. Sinner generates easier power and takes the balls earlier. This is an advantage for Sinner.

However, it is essential to note that Wimbledon grass is not particularly fast, especially in the second week, when there is more wear and tear and the grass becomes slower and slightly higher bouncing, so this advantage can be negated to some extent.

It’s incredible how quickly the Italian has bounced back after the tough defeat in the French Open final, but he still might have a mental block against Alcaraz. He can’t seem to take the opportunities that arise for him when playing the Spaniard. In both the US Open 2022 quarterfinal and the French Open final, he had match points against Alcaraz, and in both cases, he squandered them, going on to lose the match. He must not have any doubts in crucial moments and finish off Alcaraz instantly if the opportunity arises. 

Sinner is more consistent off the baseline, so Alcaraz will come to the net more often than he already does and disrupt his rhythm. Sinner will need to be at his best in terms of passing shots, something he struggled with during the first half of the tournament. He must be able to hurt Alcaraz at the net.

Carlos Alcaraz

No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz pulled out a Houdini act in the semifinals to avoid the match going to a fifth set against Taylor Fritz. On the bright side, he served brilliantly in the match, winning 88% of his first serve points and hitting 13 aces. Alcaraz has had his usual lapses in concentration, which have cost him some sets, but he thrives under pressure and plays his best tennis in the finals. He is on a 24-match win streak and is one win away from joining Rafael Nadal in winning the channel Slam twice. The Spaniard has never lost a Grand Slam final, and another victory would double his Slam tally over his biggest rival.

Keys to Success

The serve and return dynamic plays a significant role for Alcaraz as well. He has improved his serve this grass season and is hitting more aces than ever. The serve has to remain a weapon, as Sinner is probably the best returner on tour. He should mix in serve-and-volley plays if Sinner is standing deep for returns. Alcaraz’s second serve return can sometimes be a weakness. He missed a lot of easy returns against Fritz and can’t afford to do that against the Italian.

Alcaraz has a better slice, volleys, and his forecourt game is superior. He must use his superior net game to his advantage on this surface to win more points. His variety on the surface will be able to trouble Sinner. We’ve seen what Dimitrov was able to do at times against Sinner in this event, and Alcaraz will be capable of troubling Sinner similarly since he is capable of playing with variety. Using the block returns and slices can be very effective for Alcaraz.

Against Fritz,  Alcaraz needed a bit of a Houdini act again to escape going to a five-setter. And one slip cost him the second set. Sinner will equally punish such momentary dips in level. I don’t see Alcaraz surviving a two-set deficit again. He has to respond very quickly or deliver the first blow.

Alcaraz’s belief in himself is out of this world and has the mental advantage in this rivalry, even if the slightest. If the match goes deep, he just knows how to raise his level and snatch the victory.