Five ACC games that will shape College Football Playoff

With the Big Ten and SEC taking an even bigger piece of the college football pie, rumors of the ACC's potential demise surfaced in 2024.

Rumors be damned, the ACC put two teams in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff last season, with the committee choosing SMU over Alabama and Clemson also making the field.

This season, Clemson appears to be the favorite in the conference, but Miami, Louisville and SMU should be viable challengers for the ACC title and a spot in the CFP.

Here are five conference games that will play a major role in determining who represents the ACC in the College Football Playoff:

Miami at Florida State | Oct. 4

By the time Miami opens ACC play in Tallahassee, it could already be in a precarious position. The 'Canes will have hosted Notre Dame (Aug. 31) and Florida (Sept. 20) as part of a difficult nonconference schedule. Miami's road game with its biggest rival won't be easy either.

Florida State should come in 3-1 — its opening game is against Alabama, a sure loss — and with the opportunity to secure a signature win against Miami. It's a measuring stick game for HC Mike Norvell's team after last season's 2-10 debacle. 

Louisville at Miami | Oct. 17

This is a major Friday night matchup at Miami and Louisville's first major test. The 'Canes won a thriller last season in Louisville 52-45 — one of four losses by a combined 24 points last season for the Cardinals, who probably must win this game to make the playoff.

New Louisville quarterback Miller Moss was 4-5 as USC's starter last season, including a 1-3 record against teams that finished with a better record. He must outduel Miami QB Carson Beck, who transferred from Georgia after last season.

The good news for Louisville is that after five straight losses on the road to the Hurricanes. the Cardinals won 38-31 in their last game at Miami in 2023.

SMU at Clemson | Oct. 18

This a rematch of last season's ACC title game, won by Clemson 34-31. For SMU, the back half of the schedule is tough with games against Clemson, vs. Miami (Nov. 1) and vs. Louisville (Nov. 22).

Before Oct. 18, the Mustangs will host Baylor (Sept. 6) and travel to TCU (Sept. 20). A loss in either of those games would most likely require SMU to beat two of the three aforementioned ACC teams to qualify for the CFP.

Quarterback play will be featured as SMU's dual-threat Kevin Jennings takes on Clemson's Cade Klubnik, a potential first-round NFL Draft pick. The two combined 566 yards passing (304 for Jennings) and seven TD passes (four by Klubnik) in last season's ACC Championship Game.

Miami at SMU | Nov. 1

It's hard to imagine either team is undefeated by this point, and both still must face Louisville in the ensuing weeks. The winner of this game will have a huge advantage for the CFP.

Miami returns five starters to its defense under fourth-year Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal, whose unit on that side of the ball has often been problematic. Miami can't afford a poor defensive effort against a QB as scary as Jennings. 

On offense, Beck has been prone to silly interceptions (12 in 2024). SMU's defense, meanwhile, ranked 14th in interceptions (16) last season. 

Clemson at Louisville | Nov. 14

This is the final conference game for Clemson, which lost at home to Louisville last season 33-21 and finishes the regular season against two nonconference opponents. So this is an opportunity for the Tigers to end the ACC slate with an exclamation point. 

For Louisville, it's the start of a difficult three-game stretch against Clemson, SMU (Nov. 22) and rival Kentucky (Nov. 29). 

The Tigers and Cardinals build rosters differently. Clemson HC Dabo Swinney is committed to recruiting HS talent, while Louisville's Jeff Brohm brings in dozens of transfers. By Nov. 14, Louisville's roster should have jelled for this to be a fantastic game.