15 schools that can throw a wrench in the College Football Playoff

The Cougars have had a roller coaster time in their two seasons in the Big 12. After an uneven inaugural campaign in 2023 that saw a 4-1 start crash to a 1-6 finish, the Cougars went 11-2 last year and were ranked as high as No. 6 in the country in November. BYU had the Big 12's top defense last year and should be one of the best again in 2025. QB Jake Retzlaff's late transfer to Tulane left the Cougars with a hole at quarterback, but a variety of options. Will it be highly ranked true freshman Stanford transfer Bear Bachmeier? Or will it be last year's backup, former Utah State transfer McCae Hillstead instead? With special teams always of importance in Provo, this is a highly skilled and balanced team that has the tools to make another run in the conference. The schedule is manageable, with a poor non-conference slate leading into the league schedule that doesn't have Arizona State, Kansas State, or Baylor. If they can survive their mid-season stretch, where they go to Arizona, home to Utah, then road trips to Iowa State and Texas Tech, then they could sniff a playoff spot.  

Florida was pretty hot at the end of the 2024 season, winning their final four games ... which included victories over LSU and Ole Miss -- the latter likely knocking them out of the College Football Playoff. DJ Lagway is one of the most buzzworthy quarterbacks heading into this season as a possible breakout performer. His freshman stats won't wow you, but the Gators were 6-1 after he took over for an injured Graham Mertz. He entered camp with a foot injury, so if that can heal up, then Florida is a dark horse in the playoff race. Even if they can't get it all together, they can play spoiler with an absolutely brutal schedule. The Gators have road trips to LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss while hosting Texas, Tennessee and rival Florida State. Add in the rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville and Florida has many opportunities to make a name for themselves -- or trip someone else up. 

Georgia Tech has been wearing the crown of a program that could be a sleeper to make a run in the ACC and sneak into the expanded College Football Playoff. Last year began as if it was about to happen with a stunning win over Florida State in Dublin. The shine from that win wore off with a loss to Syracuse in Week 3 and that FSU wasn't any good. Still, despite the Jackets' 7-6 record, there was a lot to like about the 2024 season. Tech beat Miami late in the year, giving the Hurricanes their first loss of the year, then following it up by beating NC State. The game that may have been the reason for optimism heading into the season was their 8-overtime loss to SEC champion Georgia, which showed us once again the potential in this team and program. Haynes King is back for his 20th season (joking, but it does seem like it) and hopes to continue his improvement (his completion percentage rose to 73% last year and threw for 14 TDs and just 2 INTs) and have a healthy year. His entire career -- which began in 2020 at Texas A&M -- has been defined by injuries that have either knocked him out of games or have forced him to deal with them while he played. The transfer portal brought in much-needed help at receiver and a pass rush for the defense, but overall health will be key for a team that was decimated last season. Tech opens at Colorado, which is a huge opportunity to get a win on the national stage, before hosting Clemson on September 13th. After that, the schedule sets up nicely before a rematch with the Dawgs in Atlanta to end the season. 

Illinois is the buzz team in the Big Ten, and they could be the Indiana of 2025. This team may be the most experienced in the league, returning 16 starters from a team that went 10-3 last year and coming off a bowl win over South Carolina. Luke Altmyer is back for his senior season, coming off a breakout year where he threw for 22 TDs and just 6 picks (he also ran in 4 scores). The O-line is back and intact, the defense is solid with a fantastic secondary. The schedule looks okay, similar to what the Hoosiers had last year. While the non-conference schedule isn't tough, they do get a key showdown at Duke in Week 2. Their Big Ten road schedule isn't that bad, though trips to Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin surely are risky. The home slate is nice, with the exception of USC and Ohio State coming to visit, but those are grand opportunities to give the committee something to think about. 

James Madison was a FCS stud before moving up a level in 2022. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Dukes didn't miss a beat, going 19-5 in their first two FBS seasons. Cignetti left for Indiana and Bob Chesney came over from Holy Cross and led the Dukes to a 9-4 season. JMU was up and down last year -- they beat Gardner-Webb 13-6 and then put up 70 points on North Carolina the very next week -- but a lot of returning starters and a nice haul of transfers could make the best roster this program has ever had. If they can figure out their quarterback situation, they can win a Sun Belt Conference that I feel is poised to become a powerful player in the Group of 5 (or soon to be 6). Alonza Barnett would be the guy, but a leg injury puts his availability for the season in jeopardy. Could it be UNLV transfer Matthew Sluka, who played for Chesney at Holy Cross? Is it Camden Coleman who played at Richmond last season? No matter who it is, they will want to continue the Dukes' plan to run the football down their opponents' throats with George Pettaway and Ayo Adeyi. If all the transfers can get it figured out on defense, JMU could be the defensive force it was under Cignetti.  As I said, I love the Sun Belt and what they are building, and getting one of their programs into the College Football Playoff would be huge. James Madison looks like they have the best shot at doing it: they get a trip to Louisville and Liberty this year and get SBC East rivals Appalachian State and Georgia Southern coming to Harrisonburg. 

K-State looked like they could have been the best team in the Big 12 last year with a 7-1 start, but the Cats stumbled down the stretch, losing 3 of 4 games. The Wildcats bring back QB Avery Johnson and running backs Dylan Edwards and Joe Jackson, and one of the better defensive lines in the Big 12. Tobi Osunsanmi is a game-wrecker off the line, and linebacker Austin Romaine is one of the best in the conference. Kansas State opens up in a huge game against Iowa State in Dublin before heading to Manhattan for three of the next four games. The schedule is doable to make a run for a league crown, which would get them into the playoff. 

SMU was the sneaky team in the ACC last year, and I feel Louisville might take back that status in '25. Quarterback Miller Moss was looked at as a player to watch last year at USC, but that really didn't happen. He transferred to the Cardinals where he will work under Jeff Brohm who should be able to unlock his potential like he was able to do with Tyler Shough. He was several receivers to spin it to, including Chris Bell for some bombs and Caullin Lacy. With backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson returning, this offense should be humming. If the defense can come together, the Cardinals could get back to the ACC championship like they did two seasons ago. Their three key games are at Miami on October 17th (a rematch of one of the best games of 2024), then back-to-back weeks against Clemson and at SMU. If they can avoid losing to bad teams like Stanford again, they can be in the mix. 

Missouri has been a very sneaky team for a few years now. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has been building up his program and it has paid off with an 11-2 record in 2023 and a 10-3 mark last year. Detractors may look at the Tigers' advantageous schedule and point to down years from Auburn, Oklahoma, and Arkansas as reasons for the win total to be inflated -- the Tigers were blown completely out by Texas A&M and Alabama, and a late-season loss to South Carolina ended any playoff talk. Don't look now, but Mizzou's schedule is freakishly (in SEC terms, anyway) easy once again. They open the season with six straight home games, which include their two most formidable opponents (South Carolina, Alabama) and a return of the Border War against Kansas. Their road slate takes them to Auburn, Vandy, Oklahoma and Arkansas -- teams that went a combined 10-22 in conference play a year ago. But, what's a schedule if your team isn't talented enough to take advantage of it? Well, the Tigers have had to overhaul their roster using the transfer portal and essentially have a battle everywhere for starting jobs. Missouri's defense is always tough and should be able to hold down the fort while the offense works through its bugs. Once that happens, Missouri could maneuver its way into playoff talk. 

Navy had a really good season in 2025 and should be ready to contend for an American title once again. Their conversion to a more modern version of the Wing-T was a massive success. QB Blake Horvath ran the offense perfectly, leading the Midshipmen to over 31 points per game. He's back, and with an even better understanding of this offense, there could be a bigger jump in 2025. Horvath's skill guys are all mostly back (hey, Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich), and the defense has been settled down ... and has the advantage of having a ball-control offense on the other side. Navy can win the American and the schedule is extremely forgiving heading into their rivalry game at Notre Dame on November 8th. If they can find a way to win in South Bend, they could vault into the top spot of the Group of 5 champions. 

In Matt Rhule's third year at Temple, he turned a 6-6 team into a 10-4 squad that played in the AAC championship game. Rhule's third year at Baylor resulted in an 11-3 season just two years removed from an ugly 1-11 campaign. This is his third year at Nebraska, where he's coming off a 7-6 season where they showed some promise (wins over Colorado and Wisconsin) but came up short against the better teams in the Big Ten. If QB Dylan Raiola can make that next step after a promising freshman season, the Cornhuskers could be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Rhule did a bang-up job recruiting and elevating the talent on the roster, and they won't play a true road game until October 11th at Maryland. That's the other thing -- the schedule isn't impossible. The Huskers do head to Happy Valley to face Penn State on November 22nd, but aside from home games vs Michigan, USC and Iowa, this isn't a difficult road. Those are all winnable games. There is an outside possibility that Nebraska is 10-0 heading into the game against the Nittany Lions, which may already have them in good position for a CFP spot. 

LaNorris Sellers is one of the more interesting quarterbacks this season. He came on strong late last season, leading the Gamecocks to a six-game winning streak to end the regular season, topped off by a magnificent performance in the finale over Clemson (166 yards rushing, 2 TD). Sellers was named SEC Freshman of the Year and has the eye of NFL scouts. The Gamecocks barely missed the playoffs last season and should have an impact on who makes it in 2025. Their schedule is brutal, with a stretch where they play at LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, at Ole Miss, and at Texas A&M before finishing the season hosting Clemson. That may be too big of a task to get into the playoffs, but they could pick off someone's dreams of playing for a national title.  

Texas Tech killed it in the transfer portal as boosters put their money where their mouth is. The rebuilt offensive and defensive lines should anchor a team that should be more crisp on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Behren Morton returns, and with better protection should be able to spray the ball all over the field ... especially to Caleb Douglas. Tahj Brooks, the Raiders' all-time leading rusher, is gone, and now Morton and this new O-line will be needed to step in and carry the team. The defense will be better, and the schedule sets up nicely (they get Kansas, BYU, and UCF at home, but do travel to Utah, Arizona State, and K State) for the Red Raiders to make some noise in the wild Big 12. 

Tulane had opportunities last season to make that leap into a possible College Football Playoff berth. The Green Wave began the season losing to two power conference teams (Kansas State, Oklahoma), then won their next eight games (most in blowout fashion) to get to 9-2. Then the bottom fell out with a slip-up against Memphis in the regular season finale and losing to Army in the AAC title game. So what will this season look like? If Maurice Turner and Arnold Barnes III can come in and bring the production that Makhi Hughes was giving, then the offense should be explosive once again. Another factor is the late addition of QB Jake Retzlaff from BYU. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 20 TDs for the Cougars and will instantly lock down a shaky quarterback room. Like last season, the Green Wave have opportunities to make some noise, with early games against Northwestern, Ole Miss, and Duke on the schedule. The conference season is very, very manageable (including a showdown with Army), so they could be back in the mix for a CFP berth. 

UNLV was thiiiiiiiiiis close to getting a College Football Playoff invite last season. The Rebels had a fantastic season and got a chance to face Boise State in the Mountain West championship game with what very well may have been a win-and-you're-in showdown. Boise State won that game and got that CFP berth. UNLV ended up losing their coach, Barry Odom to Purdue and replacing him with former Mississippi State and Florida coach Dan Mullen who hasn't coached in three seasons. Still, this was a dead program then and is now on the rise. Mullen can coach quarterbacks, and will try to extract the most out of Michigan transfer Alex Orji. With All-Mountain West running back Jai'den Thomas back, the hope is the offense will be as forceful as they were under Odom. The tough part of being a G5 team with sudden success -- and a coaching change -- is that power programs pick off your best guys. That happened on the defensive side of the ball, but Mullen worked diligently to stock back up with defensive talent that got lost at power programs. With the Mountain West on the cusp of a major renovation, this is a great chance for UNLV to show that they have staying power and will fill the power vacuum that exits when Boise State heads to the Pac-12 next year. 

Utah was the preseason favorite to win the reformed Big 12 last year, but it just didn't happen. QB Cameron Rising got hurt right off the bat, came back later to get reinjured again, and the Utes would go on a strange 7-game losing streak. The offense was awful, and the Utes' luck was even worse. Going into 2025, they hope their luck will change. Rising is gone and New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier takes over as more of a dual threat than ran one of the best offenses in the country last year. Dampier comes with New Mexico's OC Jason Beck as well, which should give him a better chance to get off to a great start. He threw for 2,768 yards and 12 TDs while running for over 1,100 yards and 19 touchdowns. Kyle Whittingham loves running the football, and the Utes should get back to that physical style that was so successful in the Pac-12. The defense is already strong and physical, making this a likely bounce-back season in Salt Lake City.