NHL 2030: Projecting the league's top 30 players in five years

Honorable Mentions: Lukas Dostal (Age: 30); Dustin Wolf (29); Spencer Knight (29)

Defensemen

No. 30. Owen Power, Age: 27
Trajectory: Ryan Suter

Going first overall created unreasonable expectations for Power. Lanky defensemen on terrible teams rarely blossom overnight in their early 20s. While Power isn’t going to become a menace like Zdeno Chara, a big, mobile, positionally sound defender with evolving offensive instincts and a strong hockey I.Q. is in every team’s recipe book. Slow and steady wins the race.

No. 27. Zeev Buium, Age: 24
Trajectory: P.K. Subban

Buium is the only defenseman on the list that hasn’t debuted in the NHL yet. Choosing known commodity and future teammate Brock Faber is the safer choice, but Buium’s offensive potential wins out. Still 19 until December and fully baked at the NCAA level, the bet is on Buium to be a top-10 blueliner within five years. While the Wild have visions of Cale Makar’s trajectory, a Subban-like one feels achievable.

No. 20. Moritz Seider, Age: 29
Trajectory: Shea Theodore

Seider went from puzzling draft choice to the next Nicklas Lidstrom to overrated by his 21st birthday. Parking the noise, Seider continues to improve and take on major responsibility — he averaged 25:04 last season at 23. By 2030, the German will be 29 and in full bloom as a Norris conversation fixture. If the Shea Theodore match looks underwhelming, he finished sixth for the Norris at ages 24 and 25, and might have been a finalist if not for games lost to injuries.

No. 19. Miro Heiskanen, Age: 31
Trajectory: Drew Doughty

A veteran of 475 regular season games before his 26th birthday, Heiskanen has been a rock solid, steadying presence worthy of the 3rd overall pick in 2017. The Doughty trajectory is a major compliment, a fellow sensational if not flashy blueliner for the better part of two decades. Although injuries limited Heiskanen last season, he’s a near-lock for continued brilliance.

No. 16. Thomas Harley, Age: 29
Trajectory: Alex Pietrangelo

By all measures, Harley’s ascension the last two seasons has been player development poetry. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him in future Norris votes — he finished 7th last year in only his second full NHL season. Jim Nill would be thrilled to have the NHL’s future #1 goaltender and two top-seven defensemen defending his net for the next half-decade.

No. 14. Luke Hughes, Age: 27
Trajectory: Kris Letang

While hockey fans might drool over replicating brother Quinn’s impact and scoring feats, few players ever reach that level. While Luke has a remote chance, Devils‘ fans would surely settle for a future blueliner in the NHL’s top five. While Habs‘ faithful might argue that snubbed Calder winner Lane Hutson offers more promise, Hughes’ pedigree and extra size on Hutson offer more probable long-term, sustained impact.

No. 12. Rasmus Dahlin, Age: 30
Trajectory: Victor Hedman

Dahlin continues to advance his game, scoring at a 76-point pace and finishing sixth in Norris voting. Don’t expect anything different over the next five years. Incredibly, 2030 will kick off Dahlin’s 13th NHL season. While the frustrated Sabres can’t find any traction, Dahlin is a permanent bright spot. With any luck, he will be Team Sweden’s next Hedman deep into his 30s.

No. 10. Jake Sanderson, Age: 28
Trajectory: Zach Werenski

Plucking Sanderson this high from contemporary defenders Seider, Harley, and Luke Hughes takes some projection and a leap of faith. But Sanderson continues to ace every test sent his way on the upstart Senators. While the smallest of samples (two games), he boosted his reputation and confidence from an impactful emergency shot with Team U.S.A at the 4 Nations Face-off. A future Werenski? Sure looks like it.

No. 4. Quinn Hughes, Age: 30
Trajectory: Roman Josi

Perennial point-per-game defensemen in their 20s in the cap era are largely mythical beasts: Mike Green, Erik Karlsson, Hughes, and rival Makar. Only Makar has matched Hughes by doing so while having above-average defensive impact. Spoiler alert: Why is Makar #1 over Hughes? Not much separates the pair. Makar has found team success, contributing meaningfully to more playoff runs, and reputationally is a five-time Norris finalist to Hughes’ two nods.

No. 2. Cale Makar, Age: 31
Trajectory: Ray Bourque

A short list of best NHL defensemen today might read (alphabetically): Dahlin, Fox, Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes, Makar, Werenski. Age-wise, all are between 25 and 28. To confidently place Makar at the top when he’ll be 31 tells us two things: 1. The upcoming generation is a long way from catching him right now; and 2. Makar can decline over the next five years and still lead the pack. As a unicorn, there are no sound cap era comparisons for his path — we had to go back to Ray Bourque to find anyone so consistently great so young.

Honorable Mentions: Evan Bouchard (Age: 30); Adam Fox (32); Matthew Schaefer (23)

Forwards

No. 28. Matt Boldy, Age: 29
Trajectory: Anze Kopitar

The bet with Boldy’s inclusion in five years is a testament to his well-rounded game — a 30-goal, two-way winger at 23 is a rare sight. But the choice also projects that with declining trends in power play opportunities and offense that a truly well-rounded player like Boldy may emerge even more valuable in the future.

No. 26. Leo Carlsson, Age: 25
Trajectory: Mikko Rantanen

Still 20 and with only 74 career points, a projected scoring explosion is implied for Carlsson. Rantanen, a fellow statuesque high pick, lines up nicely. Rantanen jumped from 38 to 84 points in his 21-year-old season. Fresh off a 45-point season and on a slowly maturing Ducks‘ team, Carlsson should see rapid growth and big offensive totals A.S.A.P.

No. 25. Wyatt Johnston, Age: 27
Trajectory: Jamie Benn

While he’s not the same imposing figure as his captain, Benn is an excellent template for Johnston to follow. A natural finisher and impactful player, Johnston may never win an Art Ross Trophy. But his career start — 89 goals before his 21st birthday — suggest that further gradual improvement will put Johnston among the game’s very best in 2030.

No. 23. Leon Draisaitl, Age: 34
Trajectory: Evgeni Malkin

Fresh off an MVP runner-up finish and breezy Rocket Richard Trophy, let’s not write Draisaitl’s obituary just yet. But he’ll be weeks shy of his 35th birthday in 2030, and the aging curve waits for no one. Fellow proven playoff performer and co-superstar extraordinaire Malkin still contributed around a point-per-game clip by his mid-30s, but had fallen outside top-10 forward chatter. Full credit to Draisaitl for being in this conversation ahead of what would be his 17th season.

No. 22. Lucas Raymond, Age: 28
Trajectory: Matthew Tkachuk

It’s hard not to like Raymond, a great skater with hockey sense, discipline, and offensive skills for days. Fresh off his first 80-point season, Raymond profiles well statistically to Tkachuk. While no one will confuse their skating or their physicality, Tkachuk kept finding new offensive and defensive levels into his mid-20s. Helping the Red Wings finally take the next step to the playoffs can only help Raymond’s rep. Speaking of Tkachuk, he’ll fall from the top 30 by 2030 given his damaging style of play.

No. 21. Nathan MacKinnon, Age: 35
Trajectory: Jaromir Jagr

An MVP season followed up by leading the NHL in assists, MacKinnon remains on the short list of the NHL’s best players today. What will he be like approaching season No. 18? A fitness freak with all-world elusiveness and puck skills, Jagr might offer a glimpse of ‘Old Man MacKinnon’ in 2030. We can assume MacKinnon’s speed and his minutes will dial back, but remaining a top-10 forward is realistic with his tools and intensity.

No. 18. Seth Jarvis, Age: 28
Trajectory: Patrice Bergeron

Before anyone tells me to take Bergeron’s name off my lips, yes, Jarvis’ defensive chops at a young age are that special. At 22, he’s already finished 8th and 12th in Selke voting while putting up 30-goal seasons. By comparison, Bergeron, a center, didn’t get Selke love for two more years. While I wouldn’t pencil Jarvis in for six Selkes, he’s the modern prototype of a young, relentless, two-way star in the making.

No. 17. Tim Stutzle, Age: 28
Trajectory: Taylor Hall

It was going to be hard to follow up a 39-goal, 90-point season as a 21-year-old. While Stutzle hasn’t matched those marks the last two years, his defensive improvements have brought his value to a similar level on a now-competitive team. What’s Stutzle’s ceiling? I’m betting it’s higher than it was offensively than when he was 21. Anything higher than that as Stutzle’s game matures equals a steady top-10 NHL forward.

No. 11. Kirill Kaprizov, Age: 33
Trajectory: Nikita Kucherov

Playing in Minnesota and missing just enough games to limit his in-season totals, here’s what you’ve been missing: Kaprizov is trending like two-time Art Ross winner Nikita Kucherov. It felt like Kaprizov was about to have an MVP year last season before injury struck. There’s some risk in expecting him to be healthy and still dominant at 33, but like Kucherov (currently 32), Kaprizov never stops evolving.

No. 9. Gavin McKenna, Age: 22
Trajectory: Connor McDavid

In each of their second NHL seasons, Crosby and Connor McDavid won the Art Ross and Hart Trophies. So, suggesting McKenna, a teenager enrolled at Penn State, will be a top-10 NHL player in his fifth season is not farfetched. Fresh off 167 points in 72 games in the WHL in a season that he started as a 16-year-old, the sky is the limit for McKenna. He’s the only undrafted player on this list.

No. 8. Auston Matthews, Age: 33
Trajectory: Alex Ovechkin

While it might seem sacrilegious to include Matthews — the No. 5 forward in 2030 — higher than Draisaitl, there are reasons. First, the pair are separated by 23 months, nearly two years. Those can be dog years in sports after turning 30. But in an injury-riddled down year, Matthews scored at a 40-goal pace. That’s his floor. His 2023-24 signature season featured 69 goals as a Selke finalist. If that’s Matthews’ ceiling, he can age and still have few equals. As Ovechkin has proven, scoring goals never goes out of style.

No. 6. Connor Bedard, Age: 25
Trajectory: John Tavares

Two years ago, this exercise would have almost certainly had Bedard at No. 1. It’s hardly a problem that a player that just turned 20 in July might not be the surefire best player on Earth by his 25th birthday. Tavares, to which his trajectory matches, was an MVP finalist at age 22 and 24. So, there is a lot of room for dominant, impactful play on Bedard’s timeline. As he and the young core around him marinate, the recognition will follow. I’m still betting on a future Hart Trophy for Bedard.

No. 5. Jack Hughes, Age: 29
Trajectory: Patrick Kane

While the injuries have piled up, Hughes has quietly scored at a 98-point pace over a four-year period. That’s been achieved from age 20 through 23 on mostly mediocre Devils’ squads. For perspective, the ages of the league’s six 100-point scorers last year (Kucherov: 31, MacKinnon: 29, Draisaitl: 29, Pastrnak: 28, Marner: 27, McDavid: 28) averaged 28.7 years old. 2030 should be max offense for Hughes as the current scoring crop ages out of their point-banking years.

No. 3. Macklin Celebrini, Age: 24
Trajectory: Jonathan Toews

Celebrini’s standing as the future #2 forward in hockey at 24 may surprise for two reasons: 1. He’s ahead of Bedard, and 2. A player not expected to have a 100-point offensive ceiling could be so highly regarded. His trajectory match, Toews, showed us that you can build a special reputation through solid offensive totals and a smart, well-rounded game featuring team success. A 74-point pace as an 18-year-old rookie on a cellar dweller suggests Celebrini’s talent has few limits.

No. 1. Connor McDavid, Age: 33
Trajectory: Sidney Crosby

Being the seventh-greatest forward in NHL history at age 28 has some perks. For our purposes, it’s that your margin for decline on the current field is massive. In a blah season by his standards — missing 15 games, getting fewer pucks on net, a short offseason — McDavid scored at a 122-point pace, added 33 playoff points, and scored the overtime winner in his best-on-best debut internationally.

How much speed would McDavid need to lose to just become very fast versus unparalleled fast with the puck? How much would his vision and hands need to decline after averaging more than an assist per game for a decade to become just an extremely good setup man? McDavid’s physical tools are so advanced that his physical decline, which has likely already begun, should allow him to preserve #1 status for years to come. Whether that’s still true at 33 in 2030 is equally a function of how fast the next generation develops to catch the man that brought hockey’s evolution to a new level.

Honorable mentions:  Ivan Demidov (Age: 24); Matvei Michkov (25); David Pastrnak (34); Jason Robertson (31); Logan Cooley (26); Nick Suzuki (30); Mitch Marner (33)

Most top-30 players by team: Minnesota, Dallas (four); Hughes Family (three in the top 14!); Buffalo, Colorado, Detroit, Edmonton, New Jersey, Ottawa, San Jose (two)